High-speed expansion of petrochemical production capacity According to SRI Consulting Inc., the United States, by the end of 2014, the Middle East will add more than 19 million tons/year of ethylene production capacity, becoming the world’s leading petrochemical and plastic product manufacturing region, among which ethylene glycol, polyethylene and poly The production capacity of propylene and other petrochemical products will leap to the leading position in the world.
According to Tony Porter, general manager of CMAI's Middle East and India operations, the ethylene glycol capacity in the Middle East will increase from 6.2 million tons/year in 2009 to 8.8 million tons/year in 2014. The proportion of global total capacity will increase from 28% to 32%, replacing North America (including Mexico) as the world's largest production area. The proportion of ethylene glycol production capacity in North America to total global production capacity will decline from 19% in 2009 to 14% in 2014. In 2009 alone, three world-class ethylene glycol plants were put into operation in Saudi Arabia with a total capacity of 2 million tons/year; in Kuwait, a 600,000-ton/year ethylene glycol plant was put into operation in 2008; Yanbo National Petrochemical Company (YanSab) has opened a 700,000-ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Yanbu, and another subsidiary, Sharq, has also opened in Jubail. A set of 700,000-ton/year installations; a 600,000-ton/year installation of PetroRa-bigh, a joint venture between Saudi Aramco and Japan’s Sumitomo Chemical Co., Ltd. in Shatrabago, also earlier this year Put into operation.
Kon-rad Scheidl, CEO of Maack Business Services in Zurich, said that by 2015, polyethylene and polypropylene capacity in the Middle East will more than double, reaching 22.6 million tons/year and 9.9 million respectively. Tons/year. The share of global polyethylene production capacity in the Middle East will increase from 13% in 2008 to 19% in 2015, thus becoming the largest polyethylene production region in the world; the proportion of polypropylene production capacity will also be 9% from 2008. Increased to 13% in 2015, becoming the world's fourth largest polypropylene production area after Asia-Pacific (excluding China), China, and Western Europe.
Shi Hedu said that the production of a large number of new capacity in the Middle East in the next few years will lead to an 18.5 million tons/year overcapacity of polyethylene in the region in 2015, and a surplus capacity of 6.5 million tons/year in polypropylene, thus stimulating the Middle East to become a global leader. The status of the export area of ​​petrochemical products.
Loss of raw materials advantage According to market sources, due to the large-scale development of the petrochemical industry, in the next five years, the demand for ethane in the Middle East will double, but the difficulty of obtaining cheap ethane raw materials will increase.
Ethane mainly comes from associated natural gas in the oil production process. The demand for raw materials in the current and planned petrochemical projects in the Middle East will exceed the supply of associated natural gas, because the region limits oil production. Affected by the global financial crisis, in order to prevent oil prices from falling sharply, in 2008 OPEC cut crude oil production by more than 4 million barrels per day. According to Phil Parker, head of Middle East Business at Shell Chemicals, further reductions in oil production will put even greater pressure on the supply of ethane in parts of the Middle East.
Parker pointed out that due to the steady production period of oil production, the new associated gas in the Middle East is becoming increasingly scarce, so future petrochemical projects in the region will be forced to find alternative raw materials. This means that the Middle East will make more use of refinery naphtha and natural gas to produce liquid raw materials, such as liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). The use of naphtha and LPG feedstock will provide opportunities for the downstream petrochemical industry.
The progress of capital-constrained projects In recent years, due to a number of factors, some major petrochemical projects in the Middle East have been postponed or cancelled. According to SRI Consulting, at present, about 4 million tons/year ethylene production capacity originally scheduled to be put into production in 2013 in the Middle East has been delayed or cancelled.
Among them, financing constraints as the most important influencing factors led to delays in the implementation of many projects. Oman Petroleum and Dow Chemical have already shelved the petrochemical project in Aman Sohar. Qatar has postponed the development of new natural gas projects to 2014, which has forced Exxon Mobil and Shell to shelve petrochemical projects in the country. Saudi Arabian International Petrochemical Corporation has also cancelled the investment plan for Jubail’s 1 million tonne/year ethylene plant and some downstream facilities.
Middle East strengthens petrochemical market discourse
The Middle East region has recently exported large quantities of cheap petrochemical products to the global petrochemical industry by virtue of its advantages in raw materials and scale, and has further gained market share, thus enhancing its right to speak in the international petrochemical market. However, at the same time as rapid expansion, the risk of the petrochemical industry in the Middle East emerged unexpectedly. The most important one was the increasing shortage of raw materials and the financial crisis that caused the project to be postponed or cancelled. This would be deterring the rapid development of the petrochemical industry in the Middle East.