At this stage, the marriage of car companies and batteries is becoming more and more common. A few years ago, I once said: "The car can't make a battery, and the battery can't make a car." Now, the boundaries of this industry are getting blurred. As a well-known brand in the industry, BMW also released news on the development of solid-state batteries. What is a solid-state battery? As the name implies, the internal electrolyte is all solid, that is to say: the electrolyte in the traditional sense does not exist. For solid-state battery technology, there are many articles on the Internet. I looked at it and wrote it quite comprehensively. I don’t care about the characteristics of technology. What is the current state of this technology? I am thinking about a problem, how to evaluate the status quo of a technology? For those technologies that are not industrialized or productized, we can say that it is still in the laboratory stage to summarize, but this statement is a bit too general. Just like a fetus in the abdomen, 1 month and 9 months, it is a fetus, but the meaning is very different. The so-called products did not move, patents first, Tesla and Toyota open patents gave me inspiration. When new technologies break out and develop at a high speed, in order to protect the rights of enterprises, they will always spend a lot of energy on intellectual property. At the same time, if a technology is very promising to become a mainstream technology, then there will be more and more participating companies. From these two perspectives, it seems that it is worthwhile to evaluate the status quo of a technology through the number of patents. Lithium batteries are nothing short of the most fashionable battery technology, and are expected to be in the consumer market, power battery and energy storage. Therefore, when I searched for lithium-ion or lithium batteries, the number of patents retrieved was over 20,000. Correspondingly, the technology that is about to come out like a fuel cell has nearly 20,000 patents in the past decade. For mature battery technologies such as lead-acid batteries and nickel-hydrogen batteries, the number of patents is about 2,000. Solid-state battery related technology, the number of patents is only one or two hundred, indicating that this technology is generally not well recognized in the industry. Based on the above topic, I would like to quote: Where is the turning point from technical to product? I remember once Pang, a telecom, asked me a sentence: "Do you think that capital and investment can accelerate technology." My answer at the time was affirmative. When resources are invested in a certain field, this field must be developed. . However, is it capital and capital, and which technology is the technology that will soon be industrialized? I personally think that finance and capital can accelerate and promote the development of a certain technology, but development can never escape the objective law of the technology itself. Excessive investment may provoke more bubbles. Therefore, the direction of capital does not necessarily represent the direction of technology. If you use a patent to evaluate a company, it may not explain the problem, but if you want to evaluate an industry, it may be more objective. When a technology is recognized by the industry, the number of patents will increase rapidly. When a technology is actually put into the market, the number of patents will naturally begin to decline as R&D behavior turns into commercial activity. When you heard that someone started to sue for some patents in the court, indicating that technology has produced commercial value, the technology is basically mature. Therefore, the number of patented lead-acid batteries and nickel-hydrogen battery products is much less than the development of lithium batteries and fuel cells. According to my above point of view, you can look at the above picture, the same development of lithium batteries and fuel cells, what do you have? Can give me a message to share. The book is above. After reading the analysis of the number of patents, my conclusion is that solid-state battery technology is still in a preliminary stage of technology, which can be said to be the technology of the germination period. So who is doing this technology? After the statistics are over, we have seen a name: Toyota! In 2013, Toyota had a report on solid-state batteries. I checked it. The report at the time was that Takashi Suzuki, who is responsible for materials engineering at Toyota, said that Toyota will fully commercialize all-solid-state batteries by 2020. Lithium air batteries will be used in the next few years. I personally think that companies like Toyota don't rely on batteries to tell stories, so I believe that such corporate behavior is more pragmatic and objective. Future business prospects for solid state batteries How to judge the business prospects of a technology? I don't understand the economy, I don't understand finance, I don't understand the market, and boldly talk about my thoughts. We often say that for the development of batteries, there are only three directions: one is performance, the other is life, and the third is safety. Are these three directions satisfied, can they be accepted by the market? I think otherwise, the market is looking at two things, one is demand and the other is cost. There is also recyclability, and I am afraid that I will take the topic far away. I will not discuss this first. As a wind vane in the automotive industry, Toyota has a pivotal role in the industry. In recent years, reports on new battery technologies such as solid-state batteries have come from first-line car companies like Toyota, BMW and Volkswagen. Is it ok to say that the industry leaders in these automotive circles are not satisfied with lithium batteries ! That lithium battery at present and even the future, can not fully meet the needs of vehicle power battery. In the future, instead of lithium batteries, it is not a solid battery, it is not a fuel cell. It is estimated that no one can give an accurate answer. We used WeChat for five or six years, and it took only five or six years to drive an electric car . In the past five or six years, the change was too fast. Think about it, lithium batteries, solid-state batteries and fuel cells are not what we need. For example, the shortcomings of solid-state batteries, many of the articles mentioned the interface problems, lithium ion diffusion problems, conductivity problems, etc., many of these problems may not understand what is going on, in fact, for the user to see, a problem, the table The internal resistance is large. What is the impact of the internal resistance conference? Some people say that it cannot be fast charged, but I think this is not the most essential problem. The most essential problem is energy loss, and internal resistance consumes energy. That is to say, charging 1 degree of electricity, releasing 0.8 degrees of electricity or even lower, and charging faster, the more losses. Can the market accept? In terms of the demand for new energy vehicles to improve their cruising range, although the energy density of solid-state batteries is high, the energy loss is relatively large; although the size of solid-state batteries is smaller, it may mean that more batteries are needed; After a negative offset, is it acceptable to the market? Some people say that technology will develop and the problem of solid-state battery resistance will be solved. I personally feel that it is not too easy for some problems from the genes. For example, fuel cells, ten years ago, must rely on precious metal catalysts, bipolar plates are costly, and hydrothermal management is difficult. After the launch of Toyota's fuel cell vehicle Mirai, it still sees dependence on precious metals. Bipolar plates still account for a large part of the cost of the reactor, and the difficulties in hydrothermal management are still there. I have seen a video of a driving Mirai while draining. Think about what it would be like if it were in the winter in the northeast of China. Say the demand, let me talk about the cost. In fact, the cost is really nothing to say. Because it is not costly, there must be no market? I don't think so, it depends on the price. The price is fixed, the market is fixed. For example, the battery in the energy storage market, we have to calculate how much we need to store the electricity. For example, the price per kilowatt of lithium battery is 3,000 yuan, and it can be cycled 10,000 times (assuming no attenuation), then the cost of the electricity cost of one kilowatt is simply 0.3 yuan, so the user will calculate, I once spent three cents on electricity. Not cost-effective, many people feel that it is not worthwhile when there is no subsidy. And a cell phone battery , I checked, the price of 2000mAh is almost 70 yuan, according to the life cycle calculation of 800 times, then I use the price of one degree of electricity is almost 12.15 yuan. But who will calculate this? We can calculate up to 70 yuan to buy a battery, and it will not be worthwhile for two years. In other words, the real price is determined by the market. Therefore, in the energy storage market, 3 cents will be expensive with one kilowatt hour. In the consumer market, 12 yuan is used for one kilowatt hour, and it is acceptable, although the cost of use is 40 times different. For cost, we always hope to get lower and lower. But in the end, to what extent, we can accept. As a common citizen, I have a minimum standard in my heart, that is, I travel 50,000 kilometers, the total cost can be equal to or even lower than the fuel car. At this time, I will consider the electric car . This cost includes the price of the car, the cost of using maintenance and repair, and the residual value of the vehicle. I don't know what the cost of using a fuel car in 2020 is, so it's really pointless to discuss the cost now. At last I believe that solid-state battery technology is a future technology. I believe that as long as I find a suitable field for him, it will naturally become a star of tomorrow. Lithium batteries lithium batteries never solve the problem, to tight encirclement, really we need to disruptive innovation. Talking about business prospects or technical prospects may be based on your own experience and even guessing. If it is a plan within one year or a plan within three years, it may be judged by experience. If the cycle is put into 10 years or even longer, then most of it is just speculation and hope. When I finished this article, I thought of two questions. Why is it not a battery company but a car company that proposes new technology? Why is it that the new technology is not shouting innovative domestic new car companies every day? 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