Feng Difan: The July 23 accident or impact on the prospects of China High Speed ​​Rail International bid

After the “7.23′′” Wenzhou-Wenzhou railway line was particularly serious, the overseas companies continued to cautiously discount the prospects of China’s bidding for international high-speed rail projects.

"China has little chance of winning the next high-speed train order in the United States." Mitsubishi UFJ analyst Shintaro Hirano said: "Now people are more aware of the importance of safety."

Prior to this, China expressed its intention to bid for high-speed rail projects planned for Russia, Brazil and the United States, and it was also a force that could compete with railroad equipment manufacturers such as Bombardier Canada, Kawasaki of Japan, Alstom of France, and Siemens of Germany.

The 2010 annual report of China's railway equipment export giant CSR [5.85 0.52% stock bar] shows that in 2010, CSR achieved nearly US$1 billion in overseas contracts, involving Europe, the Americas, Oceania, Africa, and Asia. CSR's products have been exported to more than 60 countries and regions worldwide.

Prior to this, in December 2010, CSR had signed a cooperation framework agreement with GE, in which two companies planned to jointly invest 50 million US dollars to set up a joint venture company in the United States (each party holds 50% shares) to bid for US Florida and California. State high-speed rail projects, their competitors include Siemens, Alstom, and Bombardier.

Earlier this year, the California State Government of the United States also stated that it would openly bid for a 432-mile (695-kilometer) high-speed rail project linking San Francisco and Los Angeles; then California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger was still in Asia last September. During this trip, I took a Chinese high-speed rail.

In addition to the United States, Brazil’s high-speed rail project is also a market that cannot be ignored.

On Monday, Brazil began a public tender for a high-speed railway line from Rio de Janeiro to Sao Paulo. The project will invest approximately US$20 billion and is expected to be completed before the 2016 Olympic Games in Brazil. According to the Brazilian State Ministry of State Land and Transport, The bidders are expected to include France's Alstom and the Japanese consortium, as well as possible bidders from Italy, Germany, Spain, China, and South Korea.

However, the news of the Wenzhou train's rear-end train has spread all over the world. Overseas countries have expressed strong doubts about the safety of China's trains and high-speed rails.

“The chances of them selling high-speed trains are zero.” said Edwin Merner, president of the Atlantic Investment Research Co., Ltd., which manages about $30 billion in assets in Tokyo. “I don’t think they can give confidence.” Get restored."

However, some insiders of the Chinese side stated that it is “too early” to evaluate the impact on CSR orders for China on the basis of the current “7.23” Wenchuan special railway accident.

A visible factor is that the reason for the rear-end crash in Wenzhou is still under investigation. If the final investigation concludes that the cause of the accident was due to railway dispatch or other non-locomotive equipment factors, it may help to eliminate the "flood" of Chinese railway product exports.

Faced with domestic pressures and doubts, China's locomotive equipment manufacturers are currently urgently clearing the ties between the accidents. Listed companies in a number of railway equipment manufacturing industries have issued clarification announcements.

In addition to security issues, concerns about intellectual property rights also pose challenges to China’s high-speed rail going abroad, which may affect China’s bid for Russia’s high-speed railway.

In the plan of the Russian Railway Company, this year will open tender for a high-speed rail line connecting Moscow and St. Petersburg. The value of the project is between 12 billion and 15 billion euros.

According to the “Financial Times” report, China is expected to compete fiercely with bidders from countries such as Germany, France and South Korea. Denis Muratov, chief executive officer of the Russian Railway High-Speed ​​Lines subsidiary, stated: “ China may compare all of them. They don't rely on the source of funds."

However, out of concerns about China’s intellectual property rights, Muratov said: “We certainly hope to complete this project at a low cost. However, we may have doubts about patents that have been creatively modified in China... It is better to put this project into practice. Take it apart to complete."