The growth potential has declined but many favorable factors have been faced. The growth potential of the auto market in 2015 has declined. However, in 2015, the domestic auto market faced many favorable factors, and the growth rate of the auto market in 2015 was still around 10%. Commercial Scent Diffuser,Commercial Oil Diffuser,Commercial Scent Diffuser Machine,Commercial Air Diffuser Guangzhou Chiyang Scent Technology Co., Ltd. , https://www.diffuserscent.com
China's automobile consumption tax increase and boosting new energy vehicles China is already the world's largest automobile consumption country. As domestic oil prices fall and consumers' consumption costs are reduced, it is easy to cause vehicle driving rate to rise further, and it is easier to reduce the proportion of public transportation. Lead to traffic congestion and reduced travel efficiency. Encouraging purchases to suppress use is an inevitable trend.
The important condition for the development of new energy vehicles is the low cost of using relative fuel vehicles. From the perspective of changes in the US market, the sharp decline in oil prices has also led to a decline in the enthusiasm for the purchase of new energy vehicles, and the demand for high fuel consumption models has increased. This trend is not conducive to us. Industrial restructuring. The previous meeting recommended that the state adjust and increase the amount of gasoline and diesel consumption tax, promote energy conservation and emission reduction, and improve the structure of car purchase and the frequency of car use. This adjustment is the least restrictive adjustment to the market, but it can also achieve tax revenue growth of around 30 billion per year, which is conducive to the more effective combination of stimulus policies and scope of new energy vehicles.
The localization of the luxury car market is a general trend. The current market share of the Chinese luxury car market is rising. We estimate that the total sales of domestic and imported luxury cars in 2010 accounted for 6% of the total domestic auto market, and with the high demand for luxury car market in recent years, the Chinese luxury car market in 2013 has already accounted for the total domestic auto market. 9.8%, which is also a big breakthrough. The growth of the domestic luxury car market is a combination of domestic and imported cars. The sales of domestically produced luxury brands in Europe and the United States account for a high proportion, which is a great boost for the high growth of the domestic luxury car market. With the domestic performance of the international luxury car brand outstanding, more luxury car brands accelerate the domestic process. The domestic luxury car brand is conducive to better reducing costs, building a domestic luxury car price system, maximizing profits and sales, and helping to avoid exchange rate policies and other risks. With more young people in the post-85s becoming the main players in the car, the luxury car group faces a good opportunity for rejuvenation. It is believed that some domestic luxury car brands are also more eye-catching.
Self-owned brands grabbed the SUV time window. In the past two years, independent brands have rapidly expanded their SUV market share, which has obvious effects on improving the average selling price and improving profits of independent brand enterprises.
After 2016, the average fuel consumption pressure of enterprises has increased sharply. In addition, the old models of joint venture brands have gradually formed a pattern similar to the three generations of fathers and sons and even young and old. The self-owned brands will inevitably face the undulating trend of the sedan market in the future. In 2007, the independent brand achieved a huge breakthrough in the A-class sedan market. BYD and Geely obtained market position and brand rapid improvement with the A-class sedan market. However, in the past two years, the joint-venture brand A-class car has gradually formed a multi-generation and multi-layer layout. This year, the self-owned brand car market is weak. However, after years of product upgrades and adjustments, there will be several new star models.
It is estimated that in the future, the self-owned brands will also face the cycle of the booming and adjustment period of the sedan in the SUV market. The current accelerated SUV product layout and technology upgrade of self-owned brands have captured the time window of the market and policy. I believe more companies will seize the opportunity window to promote development like the Great Wall. (Source: China Business Intelligence Network)
The growth rate of the auto market has dropped to around 7%. Yubo Zhiye Research Center predicts that “the growth rate of total production and sales of autos next year will be similar to that of GDP, at around 7%.†That is to say, the overall growth rate of the auto market in 2015 will be further this year. decline. Compared with the overall weakness of the passenger car market, this year is the first year of new energy vehicles entering the family. According to statistics from the China Automobile Association, from January to November 2014, new energy vehicles produced 57,125 vehicles and sold 52,944 vehicles. Among them, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles were 32,494 and 29,060 respectively, and the production and sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles were 24,631 and 23,884 respectively.
According to the statistics of Yubo Zhiye Research Center, the production and sales of automobiles in November 2014 were 2,160,700 and 2,090,900 respectively, up 5.7% and 5.2% respectively from the previous month, and increased by 1.2% and 2.3% respectively over the same period of last year. Among them, the production and sales of passenger cars were 1,384,600 and 1,775,300 respectively, up 4.4% and 3.9% respectively over the previous month; they were up 2.9% and 4.7% respectively over the same period of last year. The year-on-year growth rate of production and sales slowed down from last month. Among them, MPV and SUV maintained a relatively fast growth. The growth rate of production and sales of SUV was 36.2% and 34.1%, respectively. The growth rate of MPV production and sales was 50.8% and 48.7% respectively. The growth rate of production and sales of cars was 3.6% and 2.6% respectively. The production and sales of cross-type passenger cars decreased by 19.1% and 17.4% respectively.
It is worth noting that due to the decline in the growth rate of production and sales of cars, the inventory pressure of dealers has increased. According to relevant statistics, from January to November 2014, the company's inventories increased by 351,400 units. At the same time, the dealer inventory warning index given by the China Automobile Dealers Association was 65.7%, up 10.7% from the previous month and above the warning level. Dealers generally believe that the operating conditions in November were worse than last month. Dong Yang, executive vice president of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said that “in 2014, about 350,000 inventories were added, an increase of 30%. This increase far exceeds the overall increase in vehicle sales and must be alarmed by the whole industry.†Source of information: Yubo Zhiye Research Center)
The new car market enters the deceleration phase. In 2015, the car sales growth rate will enter the bottoming stage. The car factories we surveyed are more cautious about the 2015 forecast, and the growth rate is expected to be 8~10% or lower. At the stage of slowdown in the growth rate of the new car market, the attractiveness of the stock market (parts and services) will increase, and the automotive policy will focus on new energy vehicles and the Internet of Vehicles in 2015.
Sales in the peak season at the end of the year were stable and still in the weakening trend since the second half of the year: Our monthly survey showed that sales in the peak season in December were stable, but the growth was still weak compared with 2013. We expect passenger car sales growth to rebound slightly in December, but it is still in the downward trend of sales growth in the automotive market since the second half of this year. The surveyed carmakers are more cautious about the 2015 forecast and are expected to grow at 8-10% or lower.
In 2015, the growth rate of automobile sales will enter the bottoming stage: the sales growth period of this round of automobile market has entered the upward period since the beginning of 2012. In 2013, the prosperity of the automobile market increased significantly, and since 2014, especially since the second half of the year, the growth rate has increased. Fall back, and 2015 will enter the bottom of the current cycle. The inventory warning indicator of the China Automobile Dealers Association shows that the current dealer inventory pressure is already the highest level since the index was published, and the inventory pressure will need to be digested in 2015.
In 2015, both strong and weak varieties are facing deceleration, and the attractiveness of the stock market is increasing: in the history of SUV, the growth advantage of the overall passenger vehicle market is lagging behind, that is, it can be maintained in the initial stage of the overall market growth rate. In the end, it will still follow the fall. The growth rate of heavy truck sales has been very consistent with the overall market growth trend but with greater fluctuations. In 2015, when the growth rate of the new car market fell back to the bottom, the growth attraction of the stock market was more worthy of attention. The business with the characteristics of the stock market mainly came from the parts and services.