High-speed rail parasite chain investigation: 5 companies over sixty percent business life "iron boss"

The catastrophic railway accident on the 7·23 甬 temperature line again triggered a heated debate on the high-speed rail. At the same time, listed companies related to high-speed rail on the A-share market also received much attention.

In recent years, relying on the rapid development of high-speed railways, some of the original small-scale enterprises have grown rapidly and landed on the capital market to obtain a “double harvest” of financial strength and popularity. According to the statistics of Daily Economic News, there are currently five companies in the A-share market that are closely related to high-speed rail, except for the North-South vehicles. These are brilliant technology (002296) (002296, SZ), Territ (3000012, SZ), Dinghan technology (300011, SZ), Jiaxun Feihong (300213) (300213, SZ), Century Riel (300150) (300150, SZ), except for the glorious technology listed earlier, listed on the small and medium-sized board, the remaining four are listed on the GEM because of high-tech, high growth expectations.

It is these five “parasitic” listed companies that each play an important role in the high-speed rail electrical equipment, dispatch, and disaster prevention systems. However, they are also faced with the same problem: they rely heavily on the single-directional procurement of the Ministry of Railways, and the railway-related proportion in the main business exceeds 60%.

In the context of the recent stories about high-speed rail and motor vehicles and the frequent failure of high-speed rail operations, industry insiders have lowered their expectations for future high-speed rail investment. However, the above five companies are still burdened with an average of more than 40 times the PE's high valuation, it seems that it may face a sustained return of valuation for a long time in the future.

The main business relies heavily on the "iron boss"

Brilliant Science and Technology is the main contractor for designated enterprises of the Ministry of Railways, high-speed rail signal monitoring systems and disaster prevention and security systems. Its railway signal microcomputer monitoring systems, disaster prevention systems and wireless shunting systems all occupy a very high share in the high-speed rail. In the three years prior to the listing, revenue from the national railway market accounted for 76.35%, 66.80% and 77.42% of the main revenue respectively. As of the 2010 annual report, the company's railway communications and signal industry revenue reached 244 million yuan, accounting for 98% of main income.

Similarly, Jiaxun Feihong's main business includes three categories: conventional dispatch series products, emergency command series products, and railway disaster prevention and security monitoring system products. These products cover almost 100% of the company's main revenue.

In addition, from the 2010 annual report data, Dinghan Technology (300011)'s main product rail transit intelligent power system accounts for about 87% of its total revenue; main products include comprehensive railway video surveillance system, railway disaster prevention and security Century Riel, such as the monitoring system, railway comprehensive monitoring system platform, and railway communication monitoring system, has its main business reliance on the “iron boss” similarly approaching 100%; it is mainly responsible for railway box substations and supporting equipment. 300001), the proportion of railway equipment in its revenue was relatively low, but it also reached 58%.

Another noteworthy data is that the gross margin of sales of these five companies is much higher than that of their peers. For example, the gross margin of Dinghan Technology's machinery and equipment industry in 2006-2010 was as high as 48.96%, 52.39%, 52.16%, 47.60%, and 42.91%, respectively; another machinery industry company, Tracy, has stable gross margin at 35% since 2008. Level.

The statistics show that the machinery and equipment industry has a total of 293 listed companies. The gross margin for the period from 2006 to 2010 fluctuates around 20%, with the highest being 2010, reaching 21.84%; the lowest is 2008, which is 19.56%. According to data from 2010, Dinghan Technology and Terrell's gross profit margin were 21% and 13% higher than the average respectively.

There are similar situations in the glorious science and technology of information service industry, Century Real, and Jiaxun Feihong belonging to the information equipment industry.

Deceleration or revaluation of high-speed rail investment The investment director of a Chongqing company interviewed by the reporter of “Daily Economic News” stated: “When we were paying attention to the high-speed rail sector, we analyzed the high-speed rail sub-industry supporting companies with small and medium market capital values ​​one by one and found them. In addition to the advantages of low total market value and potential future growth potential, there are also risks that are difficult to avoid, such as these companies over-relying on ultra-fast investment in railway infrastructure, and the purchasers are concentrated in the Ministry of Railways or its affiliates. Instead, select the North and South vehicles with high barriers to industry and reasonable margins of safety as investment targets."

From the Liu Zhijun incident to the frequent operation failures after the formal operation of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway on June 30, and to the “July 23 train rear-end accident” in Wenzhou, many industry insiders interviewed by the reporter believe that the investment in high-speed railways will slow down in the future. It is a general trend.

“It can be analogized that Liu Zhijun’s high-speed rail development was 'running', and after the arrival of Sheng Guangzu, the high-speed rail was adjusted to 'race away' status. Therefore, a Ministry of Railways spokesman Wang Yongping stated in May that the Ministry of Railways will During the 12th Five-Year Plan period, 2.8 trillion yuan was invested in installments, which is not inconsistent with the investment plan for Liu Zhijun’s era of rumors of a total amount of 3.5 trillion yuan.However, in a series of frequent high-speed rail operation failures and '23’ trains After the accident, I'm afraid that the relevant departments will think more carefully about the speed of the development of high-speed rail. On the one hand is the consideration of safety, and the other is the result of the pressure of public opinion. The future high-speed rail development should return to the pace of 'walking'. On." The above investment director explained.

However, it was precisely the previous judgment on the high-speed rail over-expected investment that the market has given the relatively high valuation positioning of the above-mentioned high-speed rail concept stocks. According to the information, according to the price-earnings ratio (TTM algorithm), the current PE of brilliant technology is 60.4 times, Century Ruier PE is 47.4 times, Dinghan technology and Trek are more than 33 times, and the lowest PE rate of Jiaxun Feihong is also 30 times.

Analysts said that if the above judgment on the deceleration of investment in high-speed railways is established, the basis for these companies to be given higher valuations by the market will cease to exist in the future. If there are no other stimulating factors, they will experience long-term valuation regression.