Photovoltaic industry chain is shifting, and market growth is expected to slow down next year

With the sharp drop in the price of silicon raw materials, the low-cost competitive advantage of thin film solar energy has been difficult to reproduce. At the same time, the transfer of production capacity in the photovoltaic industry has also become a trend. This year, most European cell companies have been shut down to Southeast Asia, and many components will be closed next year. Photovoltaic manufacturing will further gather in China, extending from 1/2 of global production capacity to about 2/3 of global production next year. This is the information revealed at the Shanghai World Expo Roundtable on August 30, PricewaterhouseCoopers' "New Energy Industry Development Trends and China Opportunities."

Thin film battery outlook is dim

At present, the conversion rate of thin film solar cells is only 7%, while the single crystal industry averages 17-17.5%, and polycrystalline silicon reaches 17%. With the sharp decline in the price of silicon raw materials, the original low-cost competitiveness of thin film solar energy has been difficult to reproduce.

Suntech was the highest-profile company to develop thin-film solar energy before the 2008 financial crisis. In May 2007, Chairman Shi Zhengrong announced that he would invest 300 million U.S. dollars in the development of thin-film batteries, and he expects to form a 400-megawatt capacity this year. In June this year, when Suntech launched the “Gigawatt Solar Industrial Base” project in Minhang District, Shanghai, Shi Zhengrong told reporters at the China Securities News that “polysilicon prices have returned to rationality in the past year At the price point, the economical performance of thin-film batteries is insufficient and the large-scale production plan will be postponed."

Cao Min, deputy general manager of Jinglong Industrial Group, told the China Securities Journal that “the solar crystalline silicon photovoltaic has already dominated, and the financial crisis has caused polysilicon prices to drop from US$500/kg to US$50-60/kg, resulting in thin films. There is no longer a cost-competitive advantage, but at the same time, the shift in production capacity of the photovoltaic industry is already a trend, and most of the European cell companies have been shut down to Southeast Asia this year, and many component departments will be closed next year. At present, China's PV manufacturing accounts for 1/2 of the world's total next year. One-step concentration to about two-thirds of the world's total.” Jinglong Solar, which owns one of the largest PV companies in China, is expected to produce 1.35 GW this year.

According to the China Securities Journal, Sun Haiyan, general manager of the Oerlikon Solar Division of China, one of the world's two largest thin-film battery equipment manufacturers, has also switched to domestic silicon photovoltaic industry integration company Trina Solar as vice president at the beginning of this year. Positions.

PV market growth slows down next year

In the past three months, the price of silicon materials has increased from 50 US dollars/kg to nearly 80 US dollars/kg. Industry analysts believe that due to the recovery of the entire photovoltaic industry this year, all products in its industry chain, such as solar cell wafers, solar cells, and components, are showing a trend of oversupply.

At present, the global PV consumer market mainly depends on the European market. In 2009, Europe accounted for 73% of global PV consumption. Germany and Spain still lead the global solar energy demand market. However, in the next 7 months, Germany will reduce the subsidy tax rate twice in a row, which will directly affect the market orders in the short term.

Cao Min told reporters at the China Securities Journal that the company’s production schedule has been fully loaded this year, and orders for the entire year have been full. However, the development of the photovoltaic industry often presents a "pulse" development, and market demand will be affected by the market environment, national subsidy policies, and production costs.

Cao Min further stated that at present the consumer market of PV is spreading to the world, and it is expected that the proportion of European consumption in the world will be reduced to 70% this year. The demand for the photovoltaic industry will continue to increase, but it will not be a linear increase. It is expected that the growth rate of the global market will slow down this year.