With the gradual effect of the national macro-control policies, the economic operation of the petrochemical industry will enter a steady and slightly upward phase in the fourth quarter of this year. It is estimated that the output value of the industry in the fourth quarter will be about 3.33 trillion yuan, an increase of 12.7% year-on-year and an increase of 10% from the previous month; in which, the output value in October was about 1.06 trillion yuan, which was flat or slightly lower than the previous quarter. It is estimated that the annual production value will be 12.25 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.5%; the total profit will be approximately 735 billion yuan, a decrease of approximately 11%; the main business income will be approximately 12.0 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 10%; the total import and export volume will be approximately 655 billion US dollars. An increase of 8%; investment of about 1.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 30%. The annual crude oil output was approximately 205 million tons, an increase of 1.0%; natural gas production was approximately 110 billion cubic meters, an increase of 7%; and the total output of major chemicals increased by 8.6% to approximately 450 million tons. It is estimated that the annual apparent consumption of crude oil will be approximately 476 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%; the apparent consumption of natural gas will be approximately 146.5 billion cubic meters, an increase of 14%; and the apparent consumption of refined oil will be approximately 275 million tons, an increase of 4.6%. Apparent consumption of about 172 million tons, an increase of 2.0%; apparent consumption of fertilizers is about 70 million tons, an increase of 13%, of which apparent consumption of urea is about 27 million tons, an increase of 8.5%; apparent consumption of synthetic resin is about 80 million tons, an increase of 6%; apparent consumption of ethylene is about 16.6 million tons, an increase of 2%; apparent consumption of caustic soda is about 24 million tons, an increase of 5.5%. The total apparent consumption of major chemicals increased by 8.5% to approximately 431 million tons. In the fourth quarter, the overall trend of international oil prices was relatively stable, and the average price was roughly in line with the third quarter. The spot price of WTI crude oil is expected to be around 90-95 U.S. dollars per barrel, and the average price of Brent crude oil is still about 105-110 U.S. dollars per barrel.
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