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"In terms of the total demand for ships, the ship market is still at a low level. It takes a long time to completely digest excess capacity and excess capacity." This is the Deputy Director of the Equipment Industry Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Li Dong, who is interpreting the State Council. A paragraph made in the "Guiding Opinions on Resolving the Contradictions of Severe Overcapacity". He also said that due to the current excess capacity of shipping capacity, the shipbuilding industry may not be able to reproduce the grand occasions of 2006 and 2007 before 2015. Obviously, to resolve the overcapacity, the shipbuilding industry is destined to have a long way to go.
According to the data of China Shipbuilding Industry Association, from January to July, 80 key monitoring enterprises in the shipbuilding industry completed a total industrial output value of 198.7 billion yuan, down 15.2% year-on-year; realized main business income of 17.1 billion yuan, down 18.2% year-on-year. The total profit was 3.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 63.6%. The dilemma of the industry is also evident in the performance of listed companies in the shipbuilding industry. According to the three-level industry classification of Shenyin Wanguo, there are currently 8 shipbuilding enterprises listed on the A-share market. From 2011 to 2013, the performance of 8 listed companies The overall decline is: the average earnings per share fell from 0.56 yuan in the first half of 2011 to 0.09 yuan in the first half of this year; the average return on net assets fell from 6.06% to 1.17% in the same period; 8 companies have 6 net profits appeared in two The decline in the number of digits; the main income also fell sharply, the overall decline of 15.56% in three years.
From the performance of the secondary market, the ship sector is relatively weak and polarized. Since the beginning of this year, as of the close of October 22, according to the Shenwan three-level industry classification, the shipbuilding index rose by 7.67%. Although it outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, which fell 3.05% during the same period, it was in all Shenwan three-level industries. The ranking in the index is relatively backward. In terms of individual stocks, the stock market performance of listed companies in the eight shipping industries was clearly different. Shanghai Jiahao, China Heavy Industry, Haotian Ship, Sunbird and other four stocks rose, the top three increased by 52.41%, 28.75%, 25.29%; and China Ship, China Shipbuilding, Yaxing Anchor Chain, Guangzhou Ship International and other declines, the top two fell by 22.85%, 13.74%.
The reporter noted that in August this year, the State Council issued the "Implementation Plan for Accelerating Structural Adjustment and Promoting Transformation and Upgrading of the Shipbuilding Industry (2013-2015)", clearly setting out the main tasks of the restructuring and transformation and upgrading of the shipbuilding industry in the next three years. The Guiding Opinions on Resolving the Contradictions of Overcapacity in Production Capacity Plan the path of overcapacity in the next five years, which undoubtedly “overweights†the policy strength of the shipbuilding industry in accelerating transformation and efficiency.
As for the impact of the "Guidance Opinion" on the investment value of listed companies in the shipbuilding industry, aerospace securities analyst Yu Yu believes that "the future shipbuilding industry will develop in the direction of high technology, high added value, energy conservation and environmental protection. Key marine equipment, ocean The manufacture of engineering equipment-specific systems and equipment and special materials will be one of the future development directions. From another perspective, China's military industry is currently in an accelerated development stage, especially the development of the navy and air force is highly valued by the state. Military shipbuilding is currently in a period of high prosperity, and promoting the integration of military and civilian development is another feasible way for the future of the shipbuilding industry."
In fact, China Heavy Industries, which has received more than 8 billion yuan in military assets, has already tried this. On October 18th, the China National Heavy Industry General Assembly passed a high-injection plan to inject major military final assembly business. Ping An Securities believes that China's heavy industry's military revenue is expected to exceed 20 billion yuan at the end of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, and its contribution rate to profits exceeds 50%; and the drag of the civilian ship on the company's performance will be greatly reduced or even disappeared.
It is worth mentioning that the current international ship market is coming out of the trough. According to the statistics of China Shipbuilding Industry Association, from January to August this year, Chinese shipbuilding enterprises accepted orders for new ships of 34.91 million DWT, an increase of 139.3%. Among the listed companies, in addition to China Heavy Industries, China Ship and Guangzhou Shipyard International also had good orders. As of the end of June, there were nearly 100 new ship orders for Chinese ships, which was significantly higher than the same period of last year. The latest data from GSI As of the end of September, it has ordered 70 ships in hand, and the construction period has been scheduled until around 2016.
Although the ship’s “de-capacity†road is full of thorns, with the gradual recovery of the international market and the related policies such as price, fiscal and taxation, etc., which have been successively introduced by the state to resolve excess capacity and support, the shipbuilding industry in China is truly “ The days of sailing and sailing are not far away.