Apparent global steel consumption growth of 5.6% in 2011

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The World Steel Association recently released a short-term outlook report pointed out that in 2012 the global steel apparent consumption will increase 3.6% to 1.422 billion tons, in 2013 will grow 4.5% to 1.486 billion tons. In 2011, the global steel apparent consumption increased by 5.6%.

Despite the weak market in the fourth quarter of 2011, world steel demand in 2011 still recorded a stable growth of 5.6%. Although many negative events occurred in 2011, such as the earthquake in Japan, the political turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa, and the flood in Thailand, most of the impact was controlled on the local scale. The exception is the debt crisis in the euro area, which has indeed caused a global impact. At present, signs of stability are emerging, and it is expected that steel demand will gradually recover in the second half of this year, which will lead to higher growth in 2013.

Although the debt problem in the euro area has been controlled, uncertainties still exist. In addition, high oil prices and geopolitical tensions in oil-producing areas are also risk factors. The possibility of a hard landing of the Chinese economy cannot be ignored, although this probability is not high. It should be noted that the Chinese government is committed to adjusting the economic structure and may cause China's steel demand to continue to slow down. Of course, the slow growth of China's demand is expected to be offset by the growth of other emerging markets and the recovery of U.S. demand.

China: The apparent consumption of steel is expected to increase by 4% to 648.8 million tons in 2012, and is expected to increase again by 4% in 2012 to reach 674.8 million tons, a 61% increase from the 2007 level.

India: Driven by urbanization and investment in infrastructure construction, steel consumption in India will continue to maintain high growth in 2012 - 6.9 percent to 72.5 million tons, and will further increase by 9.4% in 2013.

US: Steel consumption is expected to increase by 5.7% in 2012 and 5.6% in 2013 to 99.5 million tons, which is 92% of the 2007 consumption level. With the North American Free Trade Area as a whole, steel consumption will increase by 5.2% and 5.1% respectively in 2012 and 2013.

Central and South America: With Brazil's steel consumption recovering to more than 5% growth, steel consumption in Central and South America is expected to increase by 6.8% to an all-time high of 49.1 million tons in 2012. In 2013, steel consumption in the region is expected to increase by 6.7% to 52.5 million tons, a 28% increase from the 2007 level.

EU: As the debt crisis weighed on economic activity, EU steel consumption in 2012 is expected to decrease slightly by 1.2% to 150.9 million tons, but in 2013 it is expected to increase by 3.3% to 155.8 million tons, equivalent to 79% of the 2007 consumption level.

Japan: Despite efforts to rebuild after the earthquake in March 2011, Japan’s steel consumption is expected to decline slightly by 0.6% to 63.7 million tons in 2012 due to exchange rate appreciation, and it is expected to decline by 2.2% to 62.30 million tons in 2013. 77% of the 2007 level.

CIS: Steel consumption is expected to increase by 4.1% in 2012 and by 5.1% in 2013. The apparent steel consumption in the region in 2013 is expected to reach 59.1 million tons, a record for the region.

Middle East and North Africa: Steel consumption in the Middle East and North Africa will rebound by 5.7% in 2012 after falling by 2% in 2011. Steel consumption in the region is expected to further increase by 8.4% to 68.5 million tonnes in 2013, reaching a record level. The consumption was 26% higher than in 2007.

The World Steel Association estimates that steel consumption in advanced economies will be 14% lower than in 2007, while steel consumption in emerging markets and developing economies will be 45% higher than in 2007. In 2013, emerging markets and developing economies will collectively account for 73% of world steel consumption, compared with 61% in 2007.

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