According to reports, the six goals set in the "Planning" first proposed that the scale of the express delivery market should be the first in the world in terms of industrial capabilities. By 2020, the revenue from express delivery services will reach 800 billion yuan. And proposed to actively create "delivery carrier" to form 3 to 4 express enterprise groups. This means that in the next four years, the average annual growth rate of the express delivery industry will be more than 20%. On February 15th, Xu Yong, chief consultant of China Express Consulting Network, stated that the current major express delivery companies' overall revenue based on brand calculations, taking into account the factors of future courier fee increases, should be achievable by then. While the industry maintains a relatively high growth rate, the competent authorities also put forward opinions on the current status of homogenous price competition. When referring to the main task of expanding market players, "Planning" mentioned encouraging backbone courier companies to merge and restructure through alliances, acquisitions, cross-shareholdings, etc., and encourage SMEs to carry out strategic cooperation or strategic reorganization. “Over the past few years, the competent authorities have been guiding enterprises from the competition from price competition to service competition, from the homogenization of standard services to differentiated services, but because the timing may not have arrived before, the effect is not obvious.†Xu Yong said However, as the trend of meager and unprofitable industries becomes apparent, mergers and reorganizations in the industry will become inevitable. The "Planning" published on February 13 set targets from six aspects of industry, technology, service, safety, environmental protection, and benefits, and set out six tasks. Specifically, it lists a number of specific development indicators for the express delivery industry during the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan†period. It is proposed that by the year 2020, express delivery volume should reach 70 billion pieces, and express delivery income should reach 800 billion yuan, with an average annual growth rate reaching 27.6% and 23.6%. Compared with the growth rate in the past few years, the growth rate set by the two key indicators has obviously slowed down. According to the data of the State Post Bureau, in 2016, the express delivery industry completed a total of 31.28 billion pieces, an increase of 51.4% over the same period of last year, and maintained a growth rate of more than 50%. The business income also accumulated 397.44 billion yuan, an increase of 43.5%. In excess of the expected growth rate, the "Plan" proposes to form 3-4 express delivery enterprise groups with annual business volume exceeding 100 billion units or annual business income exceeding 100 billion yuan. As of the end of the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€, the express delivery industry had 8 annual revenues of more than 10 billion yuan, and 7 companies had annual revenues of more than 20 billion yuan. Among them, SFG, with the highest annual revenue, reached 48 billion in 2015, and calculated according to the industry average growth rate last year. The income has already exceeded 60 billion yuan. Xu Yong believes that the goal set by the "Plan" is to be achieved. "The franchise system calculates the income of the headquarters. If the calculation is based on the entire brand, the income should be significantly higher." The increase in the cost of the express delivery industry will also be one of the factors that contribute to the growth of the industry’s revenue. Xu Yong said that with the increase in the price of the express delivery industry in the future, especially the high cost of international express delivery services, the industry's revenue growth still has room. After the "three links and one pass" (Zhongtong, Shentong, Yuantong, Yunda) and SF Express were first listed on the market last year, the development of internationalization became the collective goal of the express delivery industry. In fact, there are many measures in the "planning" to encourage the international development of express delivery companies - encouraging express delivery companies to take advantage of opportunities such as cross-border e-commerce and overseas development of domestic enterprises to "go global" and encourage domestic express delivery companies to establish strategic partnerships with overseas companies. Build a batch of domestic and foreign air express courier hubs, expand international freight routes, gradually create global international express airlines, actively develop e-commerce express trains, and build a series of hardware capabilities in major cities such as international express mail processing centers. . The goal set by the State Post Bureau is, by 2020, “to cultivate more than two world-renowned express brands with international competitiveness and good reputation†in order to participate in international competition. The objective reality is that the domestic express delivery brand market is still in China, and the express delivery services including Shunfeng brand only involve some countries. Compared with DHL, FedEx, etc., there is a certain gap between the business scale, coverage, and types of services. In accordance with the "planning", to achieve the goal of creating a "transport aircraft carrier", the specific tasks are mainly to strengthen the backbone express delivery companies and promote the intensive development of SMEs: to encourage backbone companies to achieve "through cooperation, alliances, acquisitions and cross-shareholdings, etc. "Mergers and reorganizations" aim to concentrate their advantages on expanding market share; targeting SMEs to encourage strategic cooperation, mergers and acquisitions, etc. The goal is to improve the competitiveness of enterprises and their ability to resist risks. The reporter noticed that according to the data from the State Post Bureau, the top eight express delivery brands accounted for nearly 80 percent of the nation's total express delivery brands, and the top four of them accounted for half of the country’s total express delivery revenue, which means that in addition to the top few listed companies Express brands, other courier companies have been significantly behind. Yao Jianfang, an analyst at the e-Commerce Research Center, said that there are certain gaps between the two or three echelon express brands and the leading ones, regardless of the amount of business, outlets, or service quality. In Xu Yong's view, after the completion of industry mergers and reorganizations in the future, there will be about 6 companies engaged in comprehensive logistics in the country. Currently, including the international brands operating in China, there are 27 well-known express brands in China, facing the need for specialization and differentiation. “The current status of the industry is the low level of industry concentration. The result is that the pricing power of express delivery services is not in the corporate headquarters, but in the online shop delivery staff.†Xu Yong introduced that with the future industry mergers and reorganizations to promote industrial concentration, The pricing power of courier services will also shift, creating room for revenue growth. The "plan" did not mention how the State Post Bureau will encourage the support of mergers and acquisitions. Xu Yong believes that the competent authorities will provide support in the approval process. The approval process involving the cooperation and merger of enterprises may be accelerated. In addition, other departments will need to provide support in terms of taxation and other aspects.
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