The United States International Trade Commission (ITC) proposed that Chinese tires for passenger cars and light trucks be subject to special tariffs of 55%, 45%, and 35% for China’s passenger vehicle and light truck tires for three consecutive years. This proposal is awaiting. The final decision of the Obama administration before September 17th. “China’s special case for tires sold to the United States†is currently in the US government’s review process. Judging from the two hearings held, the Chinese and U.S. side’s industry is dissatisfied with the strong support of the U.S. Steel Workers’ Federation. However, this apparently protectionist case continues to move forward and to a certain degree also reflects the embarrassing attitude of the U.S. government. U.S. media believe that ultimately how to decide is becoming the "first major test" of the Obama administration's trade policy. According to analysis by industry insiders, once the proposal for additional tariffs is approved, China's tire export volume will decline by about 12%. What's more serious is that since then Chinese tires have been exported to the United States or will become history. At this time, "China's special case for tires sold to the United States" is still pending. Let us listen to the voices of market participants from different angles. Trade Protection Does Not Benefit Global Economic Recovery Chen Ruihua, School of Economics, Nankai University Since the financial crisis, governments of all countries have adopted active policy measures in succession and, through effective international cooperation, have jointly saved the global economy that is in decline. Regardless of whether the G20 Financial Crisis Summit or the G8 Summit, all agreed that in the global financial crisis situation, all countries should abide by the principle of free trade and reject any form of trade protection. However, in June, while the global economy has shown signs of a slight recovery, the “China’s special case for tires sold to the United States†was released and immediately became the focus of the global economic recovery. It is not so much that the incident attracts people's attention. It is better to say that the world is full of worries about the global trade policy in the post-crisis era. Trade protection is not conducive to the recovery of the global economy. This is a reality that must be faced by all countries in the world, especially those that have not emerged from the crisis. The Real Economic Background of "China's Special Troubles for the Sale of American Tires" A series of recently released macroeconomic data shows that the global economy is emerging from its predicament and shows signs of stabilizing and gradually recovering. This was mainly due to the fact that governments in various countries adopted active macroeconomic policies after the crisis and adopted a concerted rescue operation on a global scale. As far as the United States is concerned, in the second quarter, the new orders for manufacturing industry and the industrial output value index have all been rid of the sustained rapid decline in the previous period and began to recover. Although the overall industrial output index continued to decline, the decline rate slowed down significantly and exceeded expectations, reflecting the current recovery in the manufacturing industry in the United States. After experiencing rapid decline last year, the import and export trade began to stabilize. In particular, after the U.S. government launched a series of stimulus packages, the U.S. export trade has apparently rebounded, but import trade has remained weak. In the second quarter, the United States Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was: 40.10, 42.80, and 44.80, and the consumer confidence index was: 65.10, 68.70, and 70.80. Both indicators have rebounded sharply in the second quarter, but the increase in the consumer index has slowed down compared to the first quarter, indicating that the United States still suffers from weak consumption and lack of consumer confidence. At the same time, an analysis of the data on personal consumption expenditure (seasonal adjustment) in the United States found that although personal consumption in the United States has picked up recently, the recovery has been limited. Compared with the recovery of income, total consumer spending has not seen a sharp rebound this year. In the medium term, whether the U.S. economy can effectively recover and its domestic consumption will play an important role. The sluggish US domestic consumption casts a shadow over the pace of its future economic recovery. The sluggish consumption speculation in the labor market means that the unemployment rate remains high. Unemployment rates in the United States in June and July were 9.5% and 9.4%, respectively, and were at historically high levels. In particular, the collapse and reorganization of the auto industry had hit the labor market, leading to unemployment. The trend of the labor market will become an important factor in the effective recovery of the U.S. economy. Relatively speaking, China's economic recovery after the financial crisis was enough to envy the world and paralyze the United States. Several core data are sufficient to illustrate the current strong economic recovery in China. According to statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics on July 16, China's GDP in the first half of 2009 increased by 7.1% year-on-year based on comparable prices, an acceleration of 1.0 percentage points from the first quarter, and an increase of 7.9% in the second quarter. Twenty-three institutions, including the National Information Center and Peking University's CCER Morgan Stanley, forecast that China's GDP in the third quarter is expected to increase by around 9.0%. China’s economic recovery can also be proved through a series of leading indicators. In July, the China Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 53.3. Since March, except for a slight fall in May, other months have maintained year-on-year growth, and both are above 50, indicating that the economy will continue to maintain its upward trend. In a logical sense, the strong recovery of China's economy and the stabilization of the US economy will effectively boost the global economy. Both China and the United States are aware of this, and other economies around the world also expect this. In the Sino-U.S. Economic and Strategic Dialogue concluded on July 28th, both sides stressed that cooperation between China and the United States will not only promote the common interests of the two countries, but will also contribute to the sustainable development of the global economy; We will strengthen bilateral cooperation in the fields of economy and trade, seek common ground while reserving differences, and take practical measures to jointly respond to the global financial crisis. However, disagreement and friction are the prerequisites for cooperation. Before the world has yet to emerge from the crisis, the emergence of "China's special tire protection program for the United States" reflects the different attitudes and interests of both sides in the "post-crisis era" bilateral trade. The U.S. economy, which is temporarily relatively weak, is admiring the rapid recovery of the Chinese economy and is more vigilant. This move to create a "special security" banner, is more of a U.S. "trade protection" psychology on the Chinese side of a test. [next] U.S.: Market Contradictions and Passive Government The “China’s special case for tires sold to the United States†originated from the April US Steel and Steel Workers’ Association (USW) application to the US International Trade Commission (ITC) for special safeguard measures against Chinese commercial tires exported to the United States. According to article 421 of the US “Trade Law of 1974,†the American Steel Workers Association requested the U.S. government to impose import quota restrictions on 21 million tires exported by China for passenger cars, light trucks, minivans, and sports cars. According to US statistics, in 2008, China sold 46 million American tires, which amounted to US$1.7 billion, and became the largest source of commercial tires in the United States. During the period from 2004 to 2008, China's tire exports to the United States grew rapidly. The number of tires increased by 215% during the five years, and the amount increased by 295%. Subsequently, ITC launched a special survey on Chinese tire products, and made a definitive damages ruling on China's passenger vehicle and light truck tire special protection case, and determined that the Chinese tire product imports have increased substantially, causing or threatening the US domestic industry market. confusion. According to ITC's special safeguard proposal, in the next three years, the United States should impose 55%, 45% and 35% punitive tariffs on Chinese passenger and light truck tires respectively. The U.S. Trade Representative Office (USTR) held hearings twice and will make recommendations to U.S. President Barack Obama on September 2. Obama will make a final ruling on the case by mid-September, which is considered to be the Obama administration’s response to the U.S. Paul first case. In fact, just as the United States is facing a renewal of the rapid economic recovery in China, the US market is unreliable with regard to the “China’s special tire protection program for US exports.†On the one hand, USW believes that Chinese tires have harmed the interests of the US tire industry. According to statistics, between 2004 and 2008, five US tire factories closed down and 5,100 American workers were unemployed. This year's figure has increased to 8,000. On the other hand, the US Automobile Trade Policy Committee, which represents the interests of the three major US auto makers, believes that once the government takes ITC's advice, it will raise the cost of American autos and damage the competitiveness of the American auto industry, and it will not bring any tires to the American tire industry. The corresponding benefits; the US Tire Free Trade Association, which represents the interests of distributors, believes that special security sanctions will lead to more unemployment in the tire distribution and retail sectors. Research by Thomas Plussa, a professor of economics at RUTGERS University in the United States, shows that if the United States retains one job with special tire protection measures, it will lose 25 other jobs, resulting in 25,000 job losses. Regardless of the accuracy and scientific nature of the figures, the contradictions of all parties in the market can be seen only from the standpoints of the parties at the two USTR hearings. Even more intriguing, American tire makers remain silent. The most direct reason is that a large part of China's tires exported to the United States is the production or OEM production of these products by Chinese manufacturers, and the special safeguard measures obviously do not meet the interests of manufacturers. It is not difficult to see that the direct cause of the “China-US Tire Special Safeguard Case†is the low-lying US economy and employment situation, not China’s tire dumping. As far as the economy is concerned, the initiation of this case is actually an attempt to put the cart before the horse. The "hot potato" is ultimately to be digested by Obama. The U.S. government certainly understands the economic stakes. The U.S. trade representatives, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Labor, and the Ministry of Commerce will all make rigorous economic interests analysis for Obama and make recommendations accordingly. However, Obama also had to consider the interests of the arguing party. After all, he was pushed onto the presidential throne by the workers at the bottom of society. How to turn passive into initiative depends on the political wisdom of the Obama administration. China: Passive and Active Manufacturing Powers Once the U.S. safeguard measures for Chinese tires are implemented, all Chinese export industries will obviously be in a passive situation. The implementation of special safeguard measures will promote the sentiment of global trade protectionism, or it will lead to more global investigations on special products for Chinese products to curb and limit the export of Chinese products. Although China is currently based on expanding domestic demand to get out of the crisis, as the “factory of the worldâ€, the effective recovery of the Chinese economy this round will still depend to a large extent on the fundamental improvement of the export situation. Since the reform and opening up, China has been implementing the strategy of catching up with economic development and has now become the world’s second-largest economy and the third largest trading nation. In 2008, China’s GDP was as high as 4.33 trillion U.S. dollars, foreign trade totaled 256 million U.S. dollars, and its dependence on foreign trade was as high as 59%. Affected by the financial crisis, China’s foreign trade has been severely affected. From January to July this year, the cumulative value of China’s foreign trade totaled US$114.71 billion, which was 22.7% lower than the same period of last year, of which exports were US$627.1 billion, down 22% year-on-year. %. As the country’s second largest trading partner, the U.S. and U.S. bilateral trade volume totaled 158.68 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 16.1%. In view of the fact that the global economy has not yet bottomed out, China’s external export prospects are worrying. In terms of the tire industry, in 2008, China's tire industry produced a total of 350 million tires, of which 45% were exported and 13% were exported to the United States. According to calculations, China's tire export volume will decline by about 12% due to US special safeguard measures. More importantly, once the special safeguard measures are implemented, the production capacity of the Chinese tire industry will be severely surplus, affecting the upstream and downstream industries, causing a large number of industrial workers to lose their jobs and affecting economic and social stability. In three years, Chinese tires may gradually be squeezed out of the US market. If other economies follow suit, it will lead to the rise of trade protectionism, not just the tire industry, but all of China's export industries will be affected. In this sense, China, which has just emerged from the crisis, will again face a new “closure lineâ€. Fortunately, the Chinese government has taken active measures since the launch of “China’s Special Safeguards for American Tiresâ€. The Chinese government not only responded positively. “The special security case lacks both a factual basis and a lack of legal basis. It is an act of trade protection†and through other channels, it actively engages with relevant departments including the U.S. Trade Representative Office and the Ministry of Commerce. The consultations also organized the China Tire Industry Association to lobby the U.S. government, economic organizations and non-governmental forces. At present, there are indications that in the United States, the voice of trade protectionism has been suppressed to some extent. See how Obama responds to the test The “special security case†is no stranger to China. What China cannot accept is that the rise of US trade protectionism. The rise of China will inevitably be accompanied by the expansion of trade. This is something that some western countries do not want to see. The “special product transitional safeguard measure mechanism†(ie, the safeguard clause) established at the time of China's accession to the WTO itself violated the WTO’s non-discrimination principle. This article stipulates that within 12 years after China's accession to the WTO, other members of the WTO may implement "specific product transitional safeguard measures" (ie special safeguard measures) on Chinese imports under relatively loose conditions. The special safeguard clause is a separate provision for Chinese products and is a special protection rule with more protectionism. This is obviously a discriminatory clause that is inconsistent with the WTO Safeguards Agreement. The subsequent Doha Round negotiations are also clear examples. The developing countries, including China, look forward to promoting their own economic development by merging into a wave of global economic integration. The developed countries that have always emphasized that "free trade" have adopted a "conservative" attitude on many issues. As a precedent for the “special protection caseâ€, the United States’ domestic industry has so far filed six special safeguard cases, of which four were established by ITC. Out of the overall situation of Sino-U.S. relations, the U.S. government has finally rejected it. At present, the global economy is in a crucial period of stabilization and recovery, and China has contributed to the recovery of the global economy. At this juncture, it is the stick of “protecting trade†that staged a “political show†to protect individual interest groups in the country, or stand in the position of global common interest, and join hands with countries around the world to promote economic recovery. It is the Obama administration’s “post-†Another challenge that the crisis era faces. In any case, abandoning the "protectionist" mentality is the most important. Because, trade protection does not benefit the global economic recovery. [next] "Special Protection Case" affects the nerves of many producers in the industry chain. Shi Hai Factors affecting the market price trend of natural rubber include macro finance, policies, and micro-finance. However, the current special case of Chinese tire insurance for the United States involves Sino-U.S. trade, affecting China’s tire export prospects, and also determining the prospects for the development of the entire tire industry in China. , involving the nerves of many domestic and foreign natural rubber manufacturers in the upper reaches of the industrial chain, therefore, the incident has become the main hot topics affecting the trend of Hujiao in the near future. China's tire industry status China's tire market share in the United States began to increase significantly in 2001 and 2002, when the US tire industry is in the period of industrial adjustment and upgrading. In the past two years, 40% of tires produced in China were exported, and one third of them were exported to the United States. Last year's exports were close to 2.2 billion U.S. dollars. It accounts for 17% of US tire consumption. From 2007 to 2008, the total amount of Chinese tires exported to the United States accounted for only 2.7 percentage points of US consumption. In the first five months of this year, the value of exports to the United States fell by more than 15%. At present, domestic tire exporters are already doing things that American companies are not interested in, and the US tire market is grading sales. A Tire is a tire with a good brand, high price, and high profit, such as Goodyear and Michelin tires. A Tire II is an intermediate grade. There is no brand appeal for the Tire Tire. The price is cheaper. Korean brand; three-tier tires are the most common economic types of tires, and Chinese tire sales to the US mainly fall into this category. China's tires appear in the US market in the form of fair competition, but they fill the market space left by the exit of the US domestic industry. The low price of Chinese products is due to low raw material costs and labor costs. Under the economic crisis, many American companies have a tight cash flow and a greater need for economical tires. Because the market needs a variety of products. For a long period of time, Chinese companies have generally become familiar with and paid more attention to anti-dumping investigations and countervailing duties in overseas anti-dumping measures, but they have been paying less attention to investigations into special safeguards. Because there is still no company or industry that suffered losses due to special security investigations. The relevant Chinese tire export companies have prepared to compensate for the possible losses caused by the special security case by expanding tire exports to Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Europe. At present, the average production capacity of China's tire manufacturing enterprises is only 400,000/year, and there are only 15 large companies with a production capacity of 1 million/year and 3 companies with more than 3 million/year. There are more than 300 tire manufacturing enterprises in China. There are only 100 small tire enterprises in Shandong Province, and 70% of the small manufacturers with an annual output of 500,000 or less. In China, there are hundreds of tire manufacturers, which can be roughly divided into three major segments. The first section is the three giant multinational tires of Michelin, Goodyear and Bridgestone. These three companies have successively established joint ventures or wholly-owned companies in China. In the international market, the three companies accounted for more than 60% of the market share, with strong strength and advanced technology, also occupy a leading position in the domestic market. Among them, Michelin has occupied 20% of the market share of domestic replacement tires. The second section is a Sino-foreign joint venture such as Giti, as well as a number of domestic tire manufacturers with certain strengths, such as Fengshen, Double Star, and Huang Hai. These companies have relatively close levels in the mid-range passenger car and light truck radial tire market and occupy a considerable market share. The third plate is a domestic bias tire production enterprise. As foreign tire companies rarely produce biased tires in China, this market is sang by domestic companies. With the continuous increase in the proportion of radial tires, the scale of production of the plate has gradually decreased. According to the "Global Rubber and Plastics News" released by the US in the 2007 Top 75 Global Tyres, the top three Michelin, Bridgestone and Goodyear giants accounted for approximately 48.94% of global sales, ranking among the top 10. The top 10 companies accounted for 72.5%, while the 12 companies that entered the top 75 in China accounted for only 6.5%. The tire industry is a combination of labor-intensive and technology-intensive industries. Although China's tire industry still has a certain cost advantage, labor costs in foreign countries generally exceed 15%, while labor costs in China do not exceed 5%. With foreign investment in China to set up factories, this comparative advantage is gradually losing. The future tire market will be an increasingly competitive market. In the long run, the entry of foreign-funded enterprises will promote the overall level of the Chinese tire industry, while also allowing the industry to be further integrated, and a large number of mergers and reorganizations will also appear three to five years later. There are currently eight major shortcomings in China's tire industry. First, China's tire production is large, and its export volume is large, but its profit is very low. Second, intellectual property rights are in trouble. Some tire companies in China started to “imitation†international brand products, but they were also subject to intellectual property lawsuits of international brands. Third, internal competition is fierce. There are many tire companies in China, but they do not have the power to do big things. Instead, they often suppress each other in the market competition, especially in the international market, so as to benefit the fishermen. Fourth, the brand is missing. The quality of tyres manufactured by some domestic tire companies is comparable to that of foreign investment, but it is the matching system of foreign car brands that cannot be entered into the Chinese market. Fifth, the tires of car tires. China can create a record-setting super-mega-engineered tire. In terms of construction machinery tires, the tires for cars (cars) are stretched. Seventh, domestic rubber production is insufficient. Domestic tire production has a huge consumption of rubber, but China's domestic rubber production can only meet the consumption of less than one-third of the plastic demand, and more than two-thirds of the larger part is forced to import from abroad. Eighth, the disposal of used tires is backward. There are many potential safety hazards in the disposal of used and used tires in China, and the real tire retreading and remanufacturing industry is hard to say that it is on track. China's tire exports are facing challenges Although the domestic auto market was booming in the first half of the year, it led the production and sales of upstream tire companies to flourish. The output of rubber tires exceeded 300 million, an increase of 10.1% year-on-year, and the level of growth was significantly higher. However, China’s tires rely heavily on foreign exports. In 2008, half of China’s total tire production was exported. The United States is also China’s largest exporter of tires. If China’s tire exports to the United States are cut by half, there will be more than 12% of domestic tire inventory pressure, which may force Chinese companies to compress their production capacity by 20%-30% and lay off workers. The closure of factories will seriously affect the employment of 100,000 to 200,000 industrial workers. As a result, the demand for upstream rubber will have a greater negative impact. In 2008, China's tire exports accounted for 63.8% of the total output. In the first five months of this year, tire exports accounted for 42.8% of the total output. Due to the impact of the international financial turmoil, in the first half of the year, China’s tire export volume has dropped significantly. The tire industry’s exports from January to April declined by 26% to 29%, and from May to June it dropped by about 16%. As the largest consumer end of the rubber industry, the tire industry is sluggish, especially if the export is seriously impeded, and it is bound to seriously affect the expected consumption of rubber. As a result, the relationship between supply and demand in the natural rubber market will have serious negative pressure. At present, China's annual export of tires accounts for more than half of the total output (550 million pieces), while sales in North America account for one quarter of the total domestic tire production. According to 2008 production calculations, if China's half of American tire production is cut, it means that China will have nearly 12% of its remaining tire capacity, which means that there will be a huge surplus of 66 million. The domestic trade of tires suffered from trade frictions once and for all, which shows that the international trade environment is unfair. At the same time, it also shows that in recent years, despite the rapid development of China's tire industry, exports have ranked second in the world, but the brand output effect is weak, and profits are meager. China's export tire prices are lower than the average export prices of tires in various countries, including 26% lower tire prices for passenger tires, 21% lower for light truck tires, and 38% lower for heavy tires. Such a low price structure system not only deducts low-price products. Disrupting the hats of the market also provided important evidence for foreign anti-dumping lawsuits. Therefore, in the face of the trade barriers, the domestic tire industry should not merely protest, but also need to find out the countermeasures to open the market from the root, and truly realize the transition from relying on prices to win market share relying on product quality. Under such circumstances, innovation is undoubtedly the best way for Chinese tire companies to change from quantity to quality. Only relying on innovation can the tire industry develop innovative technologies and products with independent intellectual property rights and high added value. Natural rubber market is full of uncertainty At present, the “special protection case†is still in an open state. Market judgments may include the following three results: 1. As the voice of internal opposition in the United States becomes higher and higher, the United States President Barack Obama is likely to dismiss the United States tire industry The request for a tire special security case; 2. According to the US International Trade Commission's recommendation, the U.S. government may start from September of this year and impose a special protection duty of up to 55% on imported tires from China for three consecutive years. The tariff level is about 4%; 3. The market generally expects that the U.S. government may eventually use a compromise scheme to strike a balance between the normal tariff of 4.4% and the special tariff of 55%. The above results will have different effects on domestic exports of tires to the United States, which will produce bad, bearish and bearish profits. As for the natural rubber market trend, it will also produce various effects of bullishness, severe bearishness and bearishness, but due to the current day The rubber market is mainly affected by the improving global and Chinese economic outlook, while maintaining the strong characteristics of sharp rise and a slight correction. Therefore, the bullish factors may have a weaker effect on the natural rubber market, and the bad and bearish role is a natural rubber market. It may be more obvious, and it is not ruled out that there is a falling limit or even a continuous fall. In summary, Chinese tire exports to the United States are an important part of China’s tire exports, while Chinese tire exports are an important component of China’s tire demand, while Chinese tire demand is an important part of China’s natural rubber demand. It is also an important component of global demand for natural rubber. If China's tires are exported to the United States, it will have a negative impact on China's demand for natural rubber, which in turn will have a significant bearish effect on the global natural rubber market, and vice versa. In the mid-and-long-term observation, the case of China's special tire insurance program for US imports will accelerate the pace of China's tire industry to enhance its industrial structure and brand effect, and also provide a wake-up call for China's steel, aluminum, corn, textiles and other export commodity industries to upgrade. [next] "Special Protection Case" pending glue price is still strong â— Li Mingwei Judging from the recent performance of Hujiao in the domestic market, the rubber futures price is still strong under the domestic bullish fundamentals as well as the external disk's new record high. It has not been affected by the negative influence of the “China Tire Special Safeguard Caseâ€. So, how will the future price of rubber be interpreted? Will it continue to be a strong upward attack, or it will fall sharply because of the special security case? The author will briefly analyze this issue. Inflation expectations and economic recovery lay a long-term high for rubber prices Taken together, the current bullishness in the domestic plastic market is still the most critical factor in supporting the market's strength. In July, the tire data increased by 6.5% year-on-year to 57.18 million; at the same time, the operating rate of some tire factories was high, mostly around 80%-90%. The government’s support for the automobile industry’s “new-for-new†policy was started this month, and car consumption continues to improve. In addition, according to the China Automobile Industry Association’s latest statistics on domestic automobile production and sales in July, from January to July, China’s automobile production and sales reached 7,10,900 vehicles and 7,184,400 vehicles, respectively, an increase of 20.23% and 23.38% year-on-year respectively. The recovery of China's auto industry has led to the recovery of the entire tire industry. We can also judge the recent strong domestic demand for rubber from imported data. According to data released by China Customs on Tuesday, China’s imports of natural rubber in July increased by 31% year-on-year to 170,000 tons, a sharp increase of 30.8% from the previous quarter. China imported 130,000 tons of natural rubber in June, an increase of 31% year-on-year. From January to July, China's total imports of natural rubber was 990,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. High import figures show that China's demand for rubber is strong, and this is mainly driven by soaring sales of automobiles in China. It is expected that imports will remain high in the second half of the year. The People's Bank of China recently announced that it must unswervingly continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. This undoubtedly injected more liquidity and bullish confidence into the entire capital market, including natural rubber. According to statistics, in order to stimulate domestic demand and actively respond to this global financial “tsunamiâ€, China’s loans from January to July this year increased 7.73 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.89 trillion yuan year-on-year, which was far more than the total amount set at the beginning of the year. The new goal of 5 trillion yuan is added each year. With so much money coming out as a tiger, people are gradually dying out of the crisis and the expectations of the next round of inflation are getting stronger and stronger. In addition, the latest release of July macroeconomic data shows that in July China's manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) was 53.3%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, 5 consecutive months higher than the critical point of 50%, this It shows that China’s macroeconomic growth has a clear momentum. At the same time, PPI fell 8.2% year-on-year, although the decline was 0.4% higher than last month, but it was up 1.0% month-on-month and has risen for the fourth consecutive month. In July, the scale of industrial added value rose by 10.8% year-on-year, and although it was 3.9 percentage points lower than the same month of last year, it was still 0.1 percentage point higher than that in June, which was a year-on-year increase in three consecutive months. In terms of investment and foreign trade, investment in urban fixed assets rose by 32.9% in the first seven months, and foreign trade also rebounded for five consecutive months, of which exports in July first exceeded 100 billion yuan during the year. These data are undoubtedly confirming the obvious effects brought about by the proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy in the first half of the year. The macro economy has gradually emerged from the negative impact of the crisis and is gradually recovering. At present, as the foundation of China's economic stabilization is still not stable and macroeconomic policies need to maintain certain stability and coherence, the active fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy may only be fine-tuned in the second half of the year. It will not be a radical change. . As a result, inflation expectations and economic recovery have established a mid to long-term increase in the price of rubber. Production reduction in rubber-producing countries and high innovation in external disk boost domestic rubber prices According to the EU Tire Association, the production of natural rubber, which accounts for 93% of the world's natural rubber production, continues to decline. According to data from May 2009, Thailand’s natural rubber production fell by 22% in the first four months to 1,071.75 million tons. Affected by various factors, including climatic factors, declining export demand and replanting measures, natural rubber production in Malaysia fell by 28% in the first five months to 47.333 million tons. Replanting and production cuts have a greater impact on the production of natural rubber in Vietnam. From January to May, the production of natural rubber in Vietnam decreased by 22% compared to the same period of last year to 11.036 million tons. At the same time, natural rubber production in India fell by 9% in the first five months. The author believes that the production reduction in the rubber-producing countries will be a substantial profit for global rubber prices. Not only that, due to tight supply in the spot market, and the weather in the producing areas is not conducive to tapping operations, the Japanese plastic index has reached a new high. At present, the Japan Rubber Index has successfully stood on the front line of 200 yen, which seems to be a "strengthening agent" and has played a significant boosting role in the Hujiao market. From the point of view of the performance of the disk, Hujiao's main contract 1001 Masukura up, has now greatly challenged the trend of 20,000 yuan mark. Technical analysts pointed out that once this price is effectively broken, rubber prices will usher in a new "era" after the crisis. Future price trend forecast and market outlook The “special security case†that has caused a lot of rumors has not brought substantial negative impact on the rubber futures market. The price of natural rubber has instead been affected by the decline in the output of the rubber-producing countries, the renewed height of the external disk, and the increase in domestic auto consumption. And all the way up. However, I believe that the rapid rise in rubber prices in July and August has partially absorbed such bullish factors, and that the market is facing increasing probability of falling. More and more bulls are poised to be “flatâ€, and the possibility of a short-term plunge in the rubber market cannot be ruled out; not to mention technically, the price of rubber and Shanghai rubber are 208 yen/kg and 20,000 yuan/ton respectively. Strong pressure. Therefore, we believe that the rubber market remains short-term main ideas, it is recommended that more than a single early rallies can be reduced, radical investors can be properly established rallies some short positions, but must be good position control, strict stop loss. Short positions can be controlled before the end of September, because at that time, the final results of China's tire-to-the-United States special security case will also come to light. If the short positions are not yet profitable at this time, there will be relatively little room for the market to operate and prices fall. As for the medium-to-long-term rubber price trend, since our judgment on the long-term economic growth and inflation will remain unchanged, investors can instead establish long-term long positions by taking advantage of the short-term adjustment of the future rubber prices. This is a good example. s Choice. Water Treatment Purification System
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