Wanli heavy truck transmission is expected to produce and sell 4-5 million in 2011

Information: In recent days, Wan Liyang has been surveyed and exchanged on its latest business situation and future plans with the company's senior management.

Investment Highlights: The 2010 Express Report is slightly lower than our previous earnings forecast

The performance report showed revenue of 830 million yuan (+14% year-on-year), net profit of 153 million yuan (+11% year-on-year), and earnings per share of 0.9 yuan, slightly lower than our expectations. The sales volume of heavy-duty trucks was mainly lower than our expectation. In addition, the company was also affected by power cuts and power cuts, affecting sales of 10% (approximately 30,000 units are expected). We expect the company to sell slightly more than 330,000 transmissions in 2010, including 11,000 heavy-duty trucks.

Wanli Yang heavy truck transmission supporting status

Currently allocated to the north of the Futian Zhucheng Construction Vehicle, the site has 20,000 quasi-heavy-duty truck capacity, and a large-scale transmission leading enterprise has withdrawn from the factory's supporting facilities since Wan Liyang’s support. Due to the fact that the company's heavy-duty truck transmission is in the initial stage of development, and the heavy-duty truck transmission involves more than 400 parts, the spare parts supply has not yet formed a mature system, which can not fully meet the required quantity of the Zhucheng plant.

Heavy-duty transmission customers are not a problem, and 50,000 on the scale of production and sales is the key:

The company’s most important customer, Foton Motor, has a high degree of socialization of its key components, and its heavy-duty trucks have been subject to the strong position of counterparts in the industry. They are in urgent need of checks and balances, and they need and depend on each other. The strategic cooperation between Foton Motor and Wanliyang is beneficial to the long-term development of both parties.

The current status of the heavy-duty truck transmission industry is a dominating one. Once Wan Liyang enters the heavy-duty truck industry, the leader of the heavy-duty truck transmission industry may suspend the supply to the plant. Therefore, before the Wanli Yang heavy-duty truck transmission was installed, it would not dare to supply Ouman with it (Fukuda Auman 1 Factory, Auman 2 plants have 8-100,000 heavy truck capacity).

On the other hand, before the scale of production and sales is less than 50,000 units, its spare parts supply system is not yet mature, and the upstream and downstream needs to be intensively cultivated, even though Wanliyang has a high rate of transmission (accounting for more than 60% of the value of the gearbox housing and gear. The shaft, synchronizer are all self-manufactured, but the production capacity is still affected by the immature parts supply chain. We have noticed that Fast turned profitable in the second half of 2002. Its transmission sales volume was exactly 50,000 units that year, which also confirmed that 50,000 units are a threshold for scale.

We have judged that the monthly production capacity of the Wanli Yangcai truck transmission is about 3,000 units without any problems in the supply of spare parts.

It is estimated that the production and sales volume of Wanliyang heavy-duty truck transmission in 2011 will be between 40,000-50,000 units, and it is expected that it will be supplied to Futian Auman in 2012. At present, Wanli Yang heavy truck transmission customers are Futian Automobile Engineering Vehicles and Dongfeng Liuzhou Automobile.

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