Photovoltaic power "popularization" Imagination (1)

Sha Xiaolin, chairman of Johnson & Johnson Optics and Electronics, believes that the development of the global photovoltaic industry can be divided into two major stages - after the period of "aristocratic solar energy" from 2001 to 2010, it is currently entering the popularization stage. "Once the cost of electricity generation falls, The installed capacity of China's photovoltaic power generation will increase rapidly like current wind power."

"Aristocratic Solar Energy"

From 2001 to 2010, the user market was concentrated in Europe. The main products were crystalline silicon cells, which were mainly roof projects. They were highly dependent on the government's high subsidy policy and high on-grid tariffs, and they belonged to “aristocratic solar energy”.

During this period, the world's largest photovoltaic market was the German market. In 2000, Germany began to implement the Renewable Energy Law and adopted the "fixed on-grid tariff" policy. Taking 2010 as an example, its PV on-grid price is based on the size of capacity and the degree of integration with buildings. The price per kilowatt of electricity generated by PV is between 0.3457 Euro and 0.4706 Euro, equivalent to about RMB 3.0 to 4.1 Yuan per degree.

Influenced by the preferential on-grid tariff in Germany, Germany has become a huge driving force for the development of the global photovoltaic industry. The newly installed capacity of the German PV system increased from 40 megawatts in 2000 to 9,149 megawatts at the end of 2009, an increase of more than 200 times. In 2009, Germany’s photovoltaic new and cumulative installed capacity also ranked first in the world, accounting for 45% and 40% of the world total.

According to the 2009 annual report of Chinese PV companies listed overseas, more than 70% of the sales revenue of crystalline silicon companies comes from the European market with high on-grid tariffs and high subsidies. Among them, 93.3% were from Trina Solar, 89.5% from Yingli, and 74% from Suntech.

The high subsidy in the German PV market enables PV companies to choose crystalline silicon technologies with relatively high costs. At the same time, the lighting conditions in Germany are poor, and the roof installation mode is emphasized. Limited light and limited area make the photoelectric conversion rate become a power generation component The key factor. Under such circumstances, crystalline silicon solar cells with high conversion rates and high costs have become mainstream in the market. Taking China as an example, in terms of production capacity, crystalline silicon cells are more than ten times larger than thin-film batteries in 2009.