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Since the beginning of this year, the growth rate of efficiency in most chemical sub-sectors has slowed down significantly. From January to August, China's chemical raw materials and products industry realized sales revenue of 2.17 trillion yuan, an increase of 31.3% year-on-year. The growth rate was basically the same as the previous year, and profits were realized. The total amount was 133.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32%. The overall gross profit margin of the industry fell by about 0.6% from the same period of last year. Among them, the price increase of most chemical raw materials products in the first half of the year has played a greater role in increasing profits, while the growth rate of production of major chemical products has instead decreased. However, due to the continuous rise in the prices of crude oil, coal, labor, and other production cost elements, and the overall price increase of the product is less than the increase in the cost factor, it still reduces the gross margin of the industry to some extent.
This year, the prices of chemical products generally showed the characteristics of the first half of the rise in the second half of the fall. In the first half of the year, due to the large volume of exports of chemical products, and the impact of snowstorms and earthquakes on the production of some chemicals, the continuous increase in the prices of raw materials such as crude oil and coal led to gradual downstream transmission of inflation, coupled with strong demand for some chemicals. , Strong support for the prices of many chemical products in China, resulting in chemical product prices compared with the same period last year, the price increase accounted for the majority. Of the 162 chemical products that were tracked, prices rose by more than 70% of the total, and rising prices continued to emerge. However, with the recent drop in oil prices, the resumption of work after the end of the Olympic Games increased, the release of new production capacity, the price of most chemical products began to adjust significantly, some products such as glyphosate even plummeted.
The basic chemical industry in the fourth quarter was mainly facing the pressure of declining external demand and insufficient domestic demand. The development of the chemical industry is highly related to the development of the macro economy. The current domestic economic growth rate is showing a gradual decline and will also affect the chemical industry. The global economic situation is precarious, and the decline in external demand has been relatively certain; while the domestic economy is also facing slower growth. The chemical industry's downstream industries, such as real estate, automobile, textile, and home appliance industries, have seen a sharp drop in growth rate. This is in comparison to the release of a large number of products in the chemical industry. However, it appears that domestic demand is not enough. In the fourth quarter, the recovery of the chemical industry is expected to rebound in the global economy in the future and the effective start of domestic domestic demand.
The global economic slowdown will put pressure on the chemical sub-sectors with high dependence on exports. According to analysis, a 1% slowdown in the U.S. economy will cause China's exports to drop by more than 5%. As the US subprime mortgage crisis is still not over, the economic slowdown in the United States is a foregone conclusion, which will place considerable pressure on some chemical industries with high dependence on exports.
The slowdown in domestic economic growth affected the recovery of the chemical industry in the fourth quarter. Due to the impact of natural disasters, declining export growth, and domestic tightening policies, the pace of China's economic growth slowed down in the first three quarters of 2008. The chemical industry's downstream real estate, textile, and automobile industries have all experienced a slowdown in growth. If domestic textile companies are under tremendous pressure, they will have a greater impact on the upstream raw materials such as spandex, adipic acid, and BDO, leading to difficulties in boosting the prices of spandex, adipic acid, and BDO.
Although the overall economy has declined, in the first half of the year, there are still some bright spots in the basic chemical industry. For example, glyphosate in pesticides has performed better due to the overall higher prices in the first half of the year.
From January to August, China's chemical fiber industry completed a sales income of 265 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10%. The rubber product industry achieved a sales income of 264.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.5%, and a profit of 10.9 billion yuan, almost the same as last year.
The continuous growth of the chemical industry is facing challenges but still
This year, the prices of chemical products rose in the first half of the year and fell in the second half of the year. The rebound in the industry in the fourth quarter was due to the global warming in the future and the effective start of domestic domestic demand.