IEA Updates Technology Roadmap How China's Electric Vehicles Develop

Background and content Low carbon is a vision that highlights six goals

Update background

In November 2009, the IEA released the "Technology Road Map for Electric Vehicles and Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles" ("Technology Roadmap 2009"). It is a blueprint for the implementation of the IEA Energy Outlook 2010 at the request of the Group of Eight (G8), that is, by 2050, carbon dioxide emissions will be reduced by 50% compared to 2007. The "Technology Roadmap 2009" has for the first time put forward the global electric vehicle development target, that is, by 2050, it will achieve market expansion from annual production of several thousand vehicles to an annual output of over 100 million vehicles.

Since the launch of the "Technology Roadmap 2009," governments and major automobile manufacturers around the world have become more active in developing electric vehicles and have announced many new and more aggressive new goals or strategies. At the same time, some progress has been made in the research, development, application, and international cooperation of electric vehicles. In this context, IEA has updated and supplemented the "Technology Roadmap 2009" to reflect the latest developments in global electric vehicles.

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The "Technology Roadmap 2011" analyzes in detail the technological evolution and market prospects of electric vehicles, and puts forward actions and policy frameworks that should be adopted by the government, auto companies, public utilities and other parties concerned in the near future. To sum up, there are the following three aspects:

A core vision. By 2050, the widespread application of electric vehicles across the globe will result in a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and oil use.

Six strategic goals. One is to set sales targets for electric vehicles. In 2020, the annual sales of electric vehicles in the world will reach at least 5 million units. By 2050, its sales share will account for more than half of the sales of light vehicles. The second is to develop a coordinated strategy to support the introduction of the electric vehicle market. Coordinate the interests and actions of all parties to ensure that EVs are cost-competitive, provide adequate charging infrastructure, and ensure the supply of electricity. The third is to promote the industry's understanding of consumer demand and user behavior. Pay attention to research on consumer demand and consumer behavior, strengthen data collection and analysis, formulate market strategies based on this, and assist the government in formulating correct industrial policies. The fourth is to formulate a performance evaluation system for electric vehicles. Establish consistent performance standards, such as driving range, battery requirements, etc., and set appropriate performance standards for the use and security of the charging infrastructure. The fifth is to promote the research, development, and demonstration of energy storage technologies to reduce costs and solve the problem of resource security. By 2020, the cost of batteries will be reduced from the current $500 to $800/kWh to $300 to $400/kWh to improve battery endurance and establish a reliable resource (lithium and rare earth metals) supply chain. Sixth, develop charging infrastructure. Understand the impact of the development of electric vehicles on the power supply network, promote the standardization of charging interfaces, and pay attention to issues such as power supply and smart metering of car batteries.

Three development proposals. The first is to establish a policy framework. By 2015, governments of all countries should establish a clear policy framework to provide stakeholders with a clear direction for development based on the coordination of the interests of all parties. The policy objectives not only focus on the development of specific technologies, but also take into consideration social goals such as energy security and carbon dioxide emission reduction. The second is to participate in international cooperation. The government and industry conduct international information sharing and collaborative work in key areas such as research project planning, standard formulation, vehicle testing facilities, charging infrastructure construction, and policy development. The third is to formulate a national road map. Countries should formulate their own electric vehicle technology road maps based on their own circumstances, including setting development goals, promoting market introduction, understanding consumer behavior, promoting technology research and development, expanding infrastructure, setting priorities for development, and formulating supporting policies.

Evaluating and analyzing the gap between government and enterprises

Large gap between government and corporate goals

The "Technology Roadmap 2011" proposes that by 2020 the annual sales of electric vehicles worldwide will reach 7 million units, which is a 75% increase over the 4 million vehicles set up in the "Technology Roadmap 2009." Overall, this new goal is more radical. The reason for this change is that various governments have introduced or adjusted the development goals of electric vehicles. From a regional perspective, as shown in the figure, both the OECD countries and China have set higher development goals.

The “Technology Roadmap 2011” also summarizes the development goals of major global auto companies. By 2020, it will only reach approximately 1.4 million vehicles per year. Compared with the aforementioned 7 million targets based on government forecasts, the gap is as high as 5.6 million vehicles.

The “Technology Roadmap 2011” does not specifically explain why this huge gap has occurred, and only limited analysis has been conducted from the perspective of auto companies’ concerns about battery supply. We judge that the huge difference between government goals and corporate goals shows that companies have a relatively stable and conservative approach to the development of electric vehicles. The underlying reason is that electric vehicles are in core technologies, supply chains, resource security, infrastructure, and economic efficiency. Uncertainties in terms of market attractiveness and other aspects are relatively large, and there are still certain risks in industrial development.

Three key assumptions

The "Technology Roadmap 2011" has conducted a detailed analysis of the factors that affect the commercialization of electric vehicles, and believes that the key to achieving the 2020 development goals lies in the achievement of three assumptions.

First, improvements in battery technology. The "Technology Roadmap 2011" points out that battery technology is an urgent issue that needs to be solved for a long time now and in the future. The improvement of battery technology can effectively reduce the total cost of electric vehicles and improve their performance. There are three main directions for improvement, namely increasing the storage capacity of batteries, increasing the discharge cycle of batteries, and improving the durability of batteries.

Second, the overall cost is reduced. "Technology Roadmap 2011" believes that reducing the overall cost of electric vehicles, especially the cost of batteries, is critical. By 2020, the battery cost of EVs should drop below $400 per kWh, and the battery cost of PHEVs should drop to $450. At the same time, we must also seek economies of scale in vehicle production. Automobile companies should achieve economies of scale at a faster rate. This rule also applies to the development of charging infrastructure.

Third, the completeness of charging infrastructure. Excluding technical factors and cost factors, the "Technology Roadmap 2011" believes that charging infrastructure is also crucial for the development of electric vehicles. Among these, several key issues that need attention are: standardization of charging facilities, unit cost, charging network coverage, and smart metering systems.

Should establish a policy framework

The "Technology Roadmap 2011" emphasizes that the next 10 years will be the crucial period for the development and failure of electric vehicles. To this end, governments of all countries need to establish a clear national policy framework as soon as possible. Mainly include: Forming a clear market incentive mechanism, and establish a strict schedule to honor the policy commitments; Through policy support to achieve the cost of electric vehicles during the transition period close to the internal combustion engine cars; Strengthen policy coordination in all aspects to eliminate policy conflicts; Control policy costs It also gives the scope of time for the application of the policy; it will jointly develop charging infrastructure development plans with local governments and industry; and encourage local governments and companies to purchase electric vehicles.

The policy framework outlined in the "Technology Roadmap 2011" closely follows the emerging industry characteristics of electric vehicles. While emphasizing the role of market mechanisms, it also highlights the importance of active government actions and provides clear guidance for the actions of various governments in the near future.

Thinking and Advising Decision-making Risk Control Policies Guaranteed

Considering energy conservation and emission reduction as a whole

We must adhere to energy conservation and emission reduction as the center to consider the near-medium and long-term goals of China's new energy vehicles.

Energy-saving and emission reduction is the fundamental purpose of the development of new energy vehicles. Through analysis and comparison, it can be found that whether it is to improve the fuel economy of traditional vehicles, or the large-scale popularization of hybrid vehicles and other types of energy-saving vehicles, the resulting reduction in fuel consumption and emissions will eventually encounter bottlenecks. Therefore, in the long run, pure electric vehicles are the major development direction of the future automobile industry and should be used as a strategic orientation for the development of new energy vehicles in China. However, in the formulation of strategic objectives and the selection of technical paths, various aspects of positive factors and constraints should be considered as a whole, and the needs, risks of the immediate, medium, and long-term needs must be taken into consideration as a whole, and energy-saving and emission-reduction must be the center, and rational and pragmatic development of the industry should be established. Goals and strategies.

First, from a global perspective, pure electric vehicle technology is still in its infancy and there are many technical bottlenecks. It is very difficult to achieve popularization in the short-term and even long-term (2030 years ago). The IEA predicts that by 2020, the annual sales volume of pure electric vehicles in the world will be 2 million units, and in the 2030 it will be 8.7 million units. Japan's Nomura Research Institute predicts that the annual sales volume in 2020 will be about 1 million units, and the well-known American automobile consulting agency J. D. Power forecasts 1.3 million vehicles in 2020. In general, even in 2030, the proportion of pure electric vehicles in global vehicle production is still difficult to exceed 10%. Therefore, in the at least 20 years before the technology of pure electric vehicles is fully mature, the energy conservation and emission reduction of China's automobile industry needs a long-term strategic transitional arrangement, and as a precondition to formulate our country's energy-saving and new energy automotive technology line. .

Second, pure electric vehicles still have unpredictable technical and market risks. The IEA pointed out in the "Technology Roadmap 2011" that the next decade is a crucial period for the development and failure of electric vehicles (including EVs and PHEVs). It also implies that the development of global pure electric vehicles may fail or suffer huge setbacks. The formulation of China's new energy auto industry strategy should fully consider this risk factor. It should not be too radical in the setting of strategic objectives and the selection of technical routes. It is necessary to make overall plans for different models and technologies, and to use pure electric vehicles as the strategic direction in the long-term, to strengthen the technology. R&D, storage and demonstration applications, and the development of mature and mature energy-saving vehicles in the near and medium term will actively promote the development of energy-saving and new energy vehicles in China.

Third, we should stick to the fundamental purpose of energy conservation and emission reduction and formulate industrial development strategies and technical routes. In a specific stage and period, the technical route should be selected according to the contribution rate of energy saving and emission reduction. According to the Research Report on the Contribution of Energy Conservation and New Energy Vehicles to Energy Saving and Emission Reduction issued by the Development Research Center of the State Council in July 2011, by 2030, the total number of traditional energy-conserving, hybrid-powered and electric vehicles (including EVs and PHEVs) in China The contribution rate of fuel saving is 22%, 17.5% and 10%, respectively, and the total reduction contribution rate is 20%, 17.5% and 7% respectively. This shows that before 2030, the main areas of energy conservation and emission reduction of automobiles will be the traditional vehicle energy conservation, and hybrid vehicles will also have a higher contribution rate. The contribution rate of electric vehicles is still below 10%. Therefore, China should adhere to the development idea of ​​energy-saving cars and new energy vehicles at the same time for quite a long period of time. Within the new energy vehicles, the phase priorities and goals of development should also be determined according to the contribution of different technologies to energy conservation and emission reduction.

Technology and market risk can not be ignored

Should pay great attention to the development of new energy vehicles in the technology and market risk control.

From a global perspective, the development of new energy vehicles is facing two major risks of technology and market. Whether the two risks can be identified, prevented and controlled effectively determines the success or failure of the development of the new energy automobile industry.

First, in terms of technology risk control, the key is to break through core technologies and establish a standard system. First, comprehensive use of fiscal and taxation, financial and other policy measures to guide enterprises to increase investment in research and development, make full use of innovative resources in all aspects, and break through key power technologies such as advanced power batteries, motors and electronic control systems, new process materials and charging infrastructure. The second is to accelerate the establishment of a standard system for new energy automotive products, charging technologies and facilities, actively participate in the formulation of international standards and technical regulations, coordinate activities, and promote the integration of Chinese standards with international standards. The third is to establish a technical risk assessment and early warning mechanism, regularly organize assessments and forecasts of technical direction and technological progress of new energy vehicles, adjust relevant policies and resource allocations in a timely manner according to the assessment results, and guide enterprises to timely adjust technologies and technologies by publishing assessment results to the public. Product Strategy. The fourth is to establish and improve the safety assessment system for new energy automotive products, focusing on prevention and control of battery safety risks. The fifth is to encourage industry-university-cadre joint research and development of common key technologies and guide the establishment of risk-sharing and benefit-sharing mechanisms.

Second, in terms of market risk control, the core is to solve cost and scalability. The first is to comprehensively use planning, policy, public opinion, and other means to strengthen the introduction and cultivation of the market, and support auto companies to form an economic production scale as soon as possible, and to strengthen the guidance of consumer cognition and consumer behavior. The second is to organize the implementation of popularization and application and pilot demonstration projects, strengthen demonstration operation and management, establish a mechanism for survival of the fittest and prevent the immature products from entering the market on a large scale. Third, improve market access management, coordinate overall arrangements for regional industrial development, prevent blind investment and redundant construction by some local governments, and create a standardized and orderly market competition environment. Fourth, support domestic auto companies to “go global”, participate in global technical cooperation and market competition, and cultivate well-known brands with international competitiveness.

There is no need to build a policy framework

A comprehensive and clear national policy framework for new energy automobile industry should be established as soon as possible.

The development of the new energy automobile industry is a systematic project that requires a scientific and rational, comprehensive and clear policy support system as a guarantee. We should pay attention to the recommendations made by the IEA in the “Technology Roadmap 2011” and build a national policy framework for new energy auto industry as soon as possible. Among these, we should focus on the following two aspects:

First, formulate a new energy vehicle technology roadmap. The technology road map is the baton and wind vane for the development of new energy vehicles and has an important policy-oriented role. At present, China's new energy vehicle technology is relatively decentralized in terms of research and development resources, and the disconnection between production, education, and research is serious. Various departments, market players, and related industries have not yet formed a joint development force. In this context, it is necessary to co-ordinate and coordinate the interest concerns and appeals of all parties, strengthen top-level design, build consensus, and formulate a new energy auto technology road map in China as soon as possible.

Second, formulate and implement continuous and effective incentive policies. Incentive policies are crucial to the cultivation and expansion of the new energy automobile market, and they should occupy a prominent position in the national policy framework for new energy vehicles. The incentive policy focuses on realizing similar costs for new energy vehicles and internal combustion engine vehicles, so that consumers, auto companies, and charging infrastructure investors have enough confidence to promote the commercialization of new energy vehicles and achieve the coordination and balance of interests between the various industries and markets.

Specifically, the first is to encourage companies to increase investment in technological innovation and accelerate the building of batch production capacity. The second is to encourage scientific research institutes and universities to participate in the research, development and application of new energy vehicles. The third is to encourage public utility companies and other investment entities to steadily advance the layout of charging infrastructure. The fourth is to motivate consumers, families, and individuals to actively purchase and use new energy vehicles. In addition, the government and industry should coordinate and promote consumer awareness of new energy vehicles through education and demonstration, and provide accurate information on the performance of electric vehicles such as driving range, charging time, and charging location to increase consumer confidence. And acceptance.