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The first concern comes from market demand. It is understood that in 2004, domestic methanol production was 4.406 million tons, and the apparent consumption of the market was 5.732 million tons. At present, the total domestic production capacity has reached more than 10 million tons, plus 2500 under construction and approved construction. More than 10,000 tons, there are still more than 14 million tons to be built, after a few years the national total methanol production is likely to reach more than 50 million tons. Some experts predict that by 2010, methanol, downstream products such as formaldehyde, oxo-acetic acid, MTBE, etc., will have limited methanol consumption growth, and the demand for fuel, pharmaceuticals, and solvents will total 7.3 million tons. Domestic methanol production capacity will be a serious surplus.
The second concern comes from industrial policy. Domestic enterprises are keen to expand methanol, and they mainly hope that the two major market hot spots are oil substitution and methanol to olefins. But the prospects of these two markets need to be analyzed calmly. At present, China consumes 47.10 million tons of gasoline and 104 million tons of diesel each year. If the shortage of oil resources is replaced by methanol, China's development of 20 million tons to 30 million tons of methanol per year is not too much. However, the actual situation is not the case. The combustion performance of methanol is very different from that of gasoline and diesel fuel. A large proportion of methanol is blended with methanol. The automobile engine needs to be changed greatly. This involves significant changes in the energy strategy of the automotive industry, petroleum and petrochemical industry, and even the entire country. It has not yet been determined, and there are still many variables in the future development of oil alternatives. If there is indeed a more viable alternative to methanol as an alternative to petroleum, a large number of methanol plants that are being worked so hard may become a pile of scrap iron. The prospect of methanol to olefins has also been favored by some domestic manufacturers and has become a driving force for the vigorous development of the methanol industry. However, the core technology of methanol to olefins is not controlled by us and is controlled by others. There is no set of industrial installations with a capacity of 10,000 tons or more in the world. There are several sets of such devices to be built in China. The risks are self-evident.
The third concern comes from energy supply. Methanol and ethylene are recognized by the industry as the main energy-consuming products in the chemical industry. 1 ton of methanol consumes 1.6 tons of standard coal, 1 ton of ethylene uses 3 to 4 tons of light oil as raw material. Counting the energy of our family, it is more than 100 million tons of crude oil and more than 1 billion tons of coal each year. The power plants all over the country are counting on it. The operation of all walks of life and the people’s travel are all counting on it. The troops’ planes and tanks also count on it. At present, China’s annual ethylene production capacity is nearly 7 million tons, and there is still a production capacity of nearly 3 million tons under construction that will be put into operation within two years. This 10 million tons of ethylene capacity should be sufficient, and light oil consumed should account for domestic gasoline, More than half of the production of kerosene. We chemical companies must carefully weigh and measure, from the national total coal, oil plate, we can get a big slice? Construction projects that exceed the national energy support capabilities are absolutely unsustainable.
Obviously, the concerns of people in the industry are not without reason. There is a saying in China that "a clever woman can't be without rice." For large projects with millions of tons of time, market demand, industrial policies, and energy supply are all indispensable “ricesâ€. Policy makers should really consider this most "common" question when spending money on projects: Is my "rice" enough?
Beware of the Difficulties of "No Rice No More"--Thinking about the Heat of the Big Project in the Industry
In the current red light of coal and oil supply in the country, the expansion of products in the oil and chemical industry using coal and oil as raw materials has become more and more hotter and hotter. If a large number of large-scale methanol and ethylene projects are in full swing, it is also reported that a large number of millions of tons of methanol and ethylene projects have been planned. This cannot but worry many people in the industry.