China's auto market leads the global fourth quarter or current car upsurge in the first half of the year

According to the latest data released by the China Automotive Technology and Research Center, China’s auto market remained “hot” in the first half of this year, and its production and sales still ranked first in the world.

However, behind the prosperous production and sales, this year's auto market has been different from the momentum of the auto market soaring last year. It is difficult to reconstruct the situation in which supply exceeds demand and the difficulty in lifting cars. Conversely, the continuous increase in inventory has drawn attention.

Just over half of the auto market this year is still a lot of things to watch: how will the production and sales of cars in the second half? Can the 15 million mark break through easily? Will the "price war" under inventory pressure come back? Will the new policy of subsidy for energy-saving cars stir the auto market?

According to the latest data released by the China Automotive Technology and Research Center, domestic car production in the first half of the year was 8,472,200 units and terminal sales were 7,185,300 units, an increase of 44.37% and 30.45% year-on-year respectively. The global leader.

It is worth noting that, behind the high production and sales figures in the first half of this year, it is different from the trend of rising all the way last year. In fact, from the second quarter of this year, the domestic automobile terminal sales fell for the third consecutive month, followed by the continuous rise in inventory levels.

“The Chinese auto market in 2009 had its own particularities. The blowout of sales was also due to the superposition of the demand in the year and the repressed consumer potential in the previous year. Therefore, this ultra-high growth is unlikely to continue for a long time, and the high level of the auto market will stabilize this year. It is also reasonable.” Some experts analyzed. Sudden outbreak of the auto market last year was somewhat surprising. Moreover, the expansion of production capacity in the auto industry is a systematic project that requires the cooperation of spare parts supply capacity. It is difficult for the production capacity to adapt to the needs of the well-injected vehicle market, resulting in the appearance of “a vehicle is hard to find”. This year, many manufacturers have expanded their production on a large scale, and the market supply is sufficient. The auto production capacity can be expanded by pulse-like adjustments, but the market demand cannot be pulsed, so this year there has been a partial increase in inventory.

According to statistics from the China Automotive Technology and Research Center, the current domestic automobile inventory cycle has increased from 41 days in February to 55 days in June and has reached the upper limit of reasonable inventory.

"Increase in inventory will bring financial pressure to car companies and dealers. If the inventory cycle is within one and a half months, the distributors already feel pressure. If they reach two months, the pressure will be great." Experts said, "But this situation It will be eased through the adjustment of production capacity by car manufacturers. At present, the decline in the demand for front-end steel plates can be used to judge that the automobile industry capacity will shrink. "They believe that the next three quarters are in the off-season of the traditional auto market, and some of the implementation of consumption incentives It is still unclear that the market is waiting to see heavy emotions and it is difficult to have eye-catching performance. By the arrival of the traditional peak season in the fourth quarter, the subsidy policy for energy-saving cars will become clear. With the purchase tax cuts, autos going to the countryside, the old-for-new trade policy may face withdrawal, and it is expected to trigger a surprise purchase. The small climax promotes overall production and sales.