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1. At present, China's urea export fob is priced at US$430/tonne, and 35% customs tariffs and port miscellaneous fees are deducted before April 15th. The factory is equivalent to about 2,100 yuan, which is lower than domestic quotation. Exports are difficult to export. The domestic price of coal for chemical fertilizer production has risen to RMB 1,000/ton since January 2008, and the production cost of urea has increased by nearly RMB 200/ton. Due to the large number of urea exports and the impact of ice and snow, the shortage of basic urea in rural areas is serious. The ex-factory price of urea to the north of the Yangtze River rose to 2,200 yuan/ton, and the wholesale price was around 2,200-2,350 yuan/ton. Some companies in the south of the Yangtze River broke through 2,300 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong and Guangxi, the wholesale price was 2,500 yuan/ton. 35% of the tariffs have been difficult to export, if the recent introduction of new tariff policy, plus 135% tariff, affected by psychological factors, urea prices will appear to fall, but due to cost constraints, urea prices in the short term is difficult to significantly Decline.
2. In terms of phosphorus and compound fertilizers, the introduction of this new tariff policy is the most affected by the production of ammonium phosphate, followed by compound fertilizer companies. For those export companies that have signed export contracts that have not yet been declared, this will be a kind of “extinctionâ€. Disaster!" Is it damaged? Dilemma, or bite the teeth to bear 100% of the tariff, or breach of contract to bear the liability for compensation.
With the reduction of exports and even no exports, domestic phosphate fertilizer companies will reduce their sulfur purchases, and international sulfur prices are expected to fall slightly within the near future. This will help reduce the cost of domestic ammonium phosphate companies. In the second half of 2008, the domestic phosphate fertilizer market will fully meet domestic demand, prices will decline from stable to slightly, and competition in the domestic market will intensify. If the Chinese government continues to maintain high tariffs, the expansion rate of ammonium and diammonium production capacity will gradually shrink in the next three years, and the total production capacity of monoammonium and diammonium will stabilize at around 20 million tons; the price of international ammonium phosphate will rise and domestic exports will be temporarily blocked. After the country’s saturated sales of memory were blocked, there were still a few companies considering exporting in the second half of the year.
The price of compound fertilizer under the influence of various factors such as the price drop of ammonium phosphate, the rise of potash fertilizer, and the slight fall in nitrogen fertilizer, will cause the price to decline, the market competition will intensify, and the profit space will shrink.
3. Potash fertilizers If the country recently imposed a 130% high export tariff on potash. This means that the export of potash fertilizer will be completely stagnant. Under the current situation of serious dependence on imported potash fertilizer, this will undoubtedly play a positive role in ensuring domestic potash fertilizer use. However, the actual export volume of potash in China is not large, so this time a substantial increase in export tariffs will have a much smaller impact on the Chinese potash market than other fertilizers. The key to determining the Chinese potash market price is still the final result of China's importation of potash fertilizer contract negotiations. As for the impact of this adjustment of tariffs on the potash market, China Fertilizer Information Network believes that it will have a certain effect on the current rate of increase of potash fertilizer market prices.
In addition, China's sharp increase in export tariffs this time has had minimal impact on the international potash fertilizer market. In China, the total amount of potash fertilizer exported is only tens of thousands of tons, and the global potash fertilizer volume is more than 27 million tons. Therefore, the international market will not be affected.
Whether new tariffs for chemical fertilizers can be introduced as soon as everyone's legends are announced. There is a saying: The rise in electricity, coal, and chemical fertilizers will continue to rise. You worry that I worry that people worry about the country and the people. In any case, the current domestic and international fertilizer market is not normal, production companies are difficult, dealers are difficult, and farmers are more difficult. The introduction of more stringent measures by the national government can be considered a "rescue". We expect that after this pain, the fertilizer market will enter a new era of rational development!
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Analysis of the Effect of New Fertilizer Tariff Policy
The introduction of the new fertilizer tariff policy means that the Chinese government will restrict the export of fertilizer products. This will have a major impact on the production and circulation of fertilizers in China and around the world. The following is a preliminary analysis of the impact of new tariffs on the domestic fertilizer market by the China Fertilizer Information Network expert group.