Weak machine tool industry declines in total business revenues

Nantong Technology, a listed company in the machine tool industry, announced its 2012 semi-annual report. According to the report, in the first half of the year, the company achieved a total operating income of 354 million yuan; the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 162.1216 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 75.75%.

On the previous July 31st, Huadong CNC released the industry's first semi-annual report. The report disclosed that from January to June 2012, the company realized operating income of 258 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.6%; operating profit loss was 24,912,600 yuan.

Market weakness Although the semi-annual report of Shenyang Machine Tool, an industry leader, will not be known until the end of August, the company has issued a notice that the company's main business income in the first half of the year was RMB 3.7 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 23%, of which CNC machine tool product revenue was RMB 2.2 billion. Yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.37%, ordinary machine tool products revenue of 1.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.4%.

According to the forecast, the company's sharp drop in revenue was mainly due to the sluggish industry sentiment, lower demand for machine tools from downstream manufacturing companies, especially the high-end CNC machine tools required for upgrading the manufacturing industry. It is expected that after the macro environment improves in the second half of the year, the company's revenue will stop falling and rise.

Kunming Machine Tool Co., Ltd., which is also a listed company of Shenyang Machine Tool Group, expects its net profit in the first half of this year to fall by more than 90% year-on-year (compared with a net profit of 42.7719 million yuan in the same period of last year). The company said that the main reason for the decrease in performance was that during the period, the market was shrinking, orders were reduced and product competition was intensified, and labor and material costs increased.

According to the latest statistics compiled by the China Machine Tool Industry Association, the monthly statistics of some key enterprises in the machine tool industry (January-June 2012) show that the sales revenue of 122 key metal-cutting machine tools in China from January to June decreased year-on-year. 16.6%, total profit decreased by 48.2% year-on-year.

In fact, as early as before the publication of the data, the Machine Tool Association had organized key enterprises of the industry to hold economic symposia. Participants generally believed that the current economic situation of the machine tool industry enterprises is very severe, and economic indicators such as orders, operating income, profits and taxes are widespread. The rate of decline was more than 20% to 30%, and stocks increased significantly.

Moreover, all companies believe that the current economic development trend, this decline is still far from the bottom. Judging from the recent situation, it is unlikely that there will be a recovery in the next two years. Therefore, the participants’ general confidence in the economic performance in the next year or two is insufficient.

In fact, the weak development trend of the industry has already appeared in the first quarter of this year. However, the short-term recovery in March gave the industry people a slight illusion, but the actual situation is that the industry development indicators have not been steadily rising, but they have turned back to continue to callback.

According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the gross domestic product (GDP) in the first half of the year increased by 7.8% year-on-year. Among them, the growth rate was 8.1% in the first quarter and 7.6% in the second quarter. For the first time in three years, the quarterly growth rate of China's economy fell below 8% for the first time. In July, the official manufacturing purchasing managers index was 50.1, approaching the threshold.

According to expert analysis, the user industries in some machine tool industries, such as the investment in fixed assets and equipment for agricultural machinery, internal combustion engines, and petrochemical industries, have all declined compared to the same period of last year. The shrinking of investment in major user industries will inevitably affect the market demand of the machine tool industry.

Under the guidance of the 15% policy of “stabilizing growth, adjusting structure, and controlling price”, the China Machinery Federation predicts that the growth rate of the machinery industry will be around 14% for the whole year. In response, the explanation provided by the person in charge of the Federation is that the growth rate of the machinery industry has been faster than that of the entire industry over the years.

As some of the equipment manufacturers with secondary machine tools, this year's production and sales will have different degrees of growth. In particular, it is worth noting that these industries will increasingly focus on improving their own processes and equipment levels in the course of restructuring, transformation, and promotion. This will include the ideal demand for high-end and mid-range CNC machine tools and special planes.

Second, under the premise of steady growth, investment in fixed assets will sustain fluctuations. Experts estimate that the growth rate of the theory of fixed asset investment in the society in 2012 is approximately the same as that of the previous year (in 2011, the fixed asset investment theoretically increased by 16.1% year-on-year after deducting price factors).

In particular, some serious projects identified in the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” will enter a centralized establishment stage this year. The introduction and implementation of strategic emerging industries such as high-end equipment manufacturing and new-powered vehicles will drive investment in machine tool equipment to some extent. growth of.

Of course, there are also some factors that are not conducive to the growth of China's machine tool output value:

For example, from the second half of 2011, more new orders for machine tools were added. By mid-year, the situation is: “From the report of the association's key liaison companies, over the past few years, heavy-duty machine tool companies have been holding orders over their one-year production capacity. Hand-held orders often span production capacity for half a year. Today's situation is completely different. Better companies only have orders for half a year."

There will also be a slight drop in the growth rate of China's economy and industry in 2012, which will result in a decline in the production and sales of some of the machine tools and the profit growth of the machine tool industry in 2012 in the context of a decline in 2011. The decline in corporate profits and growth in production and sales will affect the reasonable growth of investment in machine tool equipment.

In addition, the export situation this year is rather grim. Although China's machine tool exports account for a small part of the output value, it will also have a slight impact on the growth rate of the machine tool output value.

Based on the above factors, experts predict that the sales value of China's machine tools will continue to increase in 2012, but the growth rate will certainly fall back, and the biggest one can be the medium-speed growth range, which has dropped back to about 15%. The market demand structure will further accelerate the promotion. The increase in the output of CNC machine tools will be clearly higher than the increase in the total output of machine tools. High- and mid-range CNC machine tools and special machines will continue to sell well. The output value of high-grade machine tools, especially ordinary machine tools, may show negative growth, while heavy and large The market demand for machine tools will remain relatively low.

Accelerating the transformation in response to this, Wu Binglin, executive vice president of the Machine Tool Industry Association, believes that in the near term, the economic downturn is a foregone conclusion. However, this situation is also a good time for companies to digest, improve, and improve the new products and technologies that have been developed in recent years to realize product replacement and enterprise transformation and upgrading.

At the symposium, the participants of the conference had a lively discussion on how to successfully implement the transformation and upgrading of the company and the adjustment and improvement of the product structure, what kind of conditions are needed, and in which areas it is necessary to support the national policy and the operability of the implementation of the policy.

Long Xingyuan, chairman of Qinchuan Machine Tool Co., Ltd. believes that at present, the domestic machine tool industry still shows no sign of improvement, and future market sales are still uncertain based on the market economy.

Facing the complicated macroeconomic situation and the declining market demand, the original products and marketing methods alone cannot provide the impetus for the growth of the company's operating performance. As enterprises increase their transformation and upgrading, they also need strong support from national policies.

Jiang Huaisheng of Dalian Machine Tool Group stated that for the machine tool industry, in order to maintain the steady development of the industry and promote the adjustment of the industry structure, it is necessary to review the situation and introduce effective policies and methods. It is recommended to use the opportunity of the state to implement a major special project for CNC machine tools. On the one hand, it will intensify efforts to adjust and increase industrial concentration and resource allocation efficiency.

On the other hand, encourage corporate technological progress. Through the implementation of financial discounts, special investment in technological transformation of enterprises and other means to accelerate the pace of research and development and industrialization of high-end CNC machine tools and numerical control functional components, and give policy support to the enterprise technological transformation, personnel training, joint ventures and cooperation.

Zhang Zhongzhong, deputy general manager of Shenyang Machine Tool Co., Ltd. stated that it is necessary to continue to implement the policy of value-added tax return for CNC machine tool products, and to use domestically-made machine tools for domestic large-scale projects, especially domestic self-innovative products, to provide tax incentives or financial subsidies.

In terms of numerical control systems, Huazhong CNC and Guangzhou CNC believe that due to the slowdown in domestic economic growth, the impact on the manufacturing industry is very great. In particular, the development of traditional major users of machine tools has slowed down, and the demand for new equipment has slowed, which in turn has affected In the machine tool industry, the decline in upstream demand has impacted the CNC system manufacturers that are supporting the machine tool.

Manufacturers of numerical control systems are now faced with the declining demand in the domestic market and the dual pressures of foreign CNC companies in setting up factories in China and rushing into the middle and low-end system market. The high-end CNC system is still a weakness of domestic companies. The development cycle of the CNC system is long and the investment is large. The company bears great financial pressure and it is difficult to achieve sustained and stable development.

The competition faced by domestic functional component companies is even fiercer, and even worse in the overall economic slowdown. The Yantai Global representative proposed to formulate corresponding policies to encourage the use of domestically-made functional components or systems. To transform and upgrade the enterprise, it is necessary to strengthen technological transformation and upgrade the product through technological upgrading.

However, one fact that cannot be ignored is that China will continue to be the world's largest machine tool consumption and export market. Internationally renowned machine tool manufacturers will pay more attention to the development of the Chinese market, will launch more products suitable for the Chinese market and add investment in China. Competition will become increasingly fierce and complicated.

With the rapid advancement and advancement of the demand structure of the Chinese machine tool market, the contradiction between the overcapacity of international low-end products and the severe shortage of high-end products will become more prominent. It is imperative that the industry's transformation and promotion go without delay.