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As the world’s major oil-consuming countries and regions enjoy a relatively good economic situation, international oil prices will continue to operate at high levels and will have a supporting role in the price of petrochemical products. In addition, the economic growth in developing countries in Asia is also very rapid. The demand for oil will continue to increase, and oil prices will remain at a relatively high level. This will support the price of petrochemical products. The continuous expansion of production scale in the downstream industries also has a certain pulling effect on the demand and price of petrochemical products.
Due to the high international crude oil prices, fuel ethanol and biodiesel projects using biomass as raw materials have become investment hot spots in recent years. Faced with the blind investment impulses of various local companies, the relevant state departments have issued a series of policies to cool the overheated new energy industry. People in the industry believe that the investment momentum represented by oil refining, ethylene, and coal chemical industry in recent years will generally slow down in the second half of the year. Over the years, petrochemical companies will be gradually awakened by their disregard for social environment and social responsibility.
Trend 2: Accelerating M&A and Restructuring Technical Barriers to Trade Are Increasingly Obvious
The merger and reorganization of the petrochemical industry is still active and the pace is accelerated. Multinationals take the form of mergers and acquisitions in China, further expanding their investment and market share in China, and establishing R&D centers in China. At the same time, starting in 2005, large Chinese companies began to accelerate the pace of “going out†and entered overseas oil and gas markets. Large companies including PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC, and China National Chemical Industry Group have accelerated the pace of overseas acquisitions and business restructuring, and their influence in the industry has increased. International Trade Under the framework of the World Trade Organization, traditional tariff barriers are gradually weakening, and the impact of technical trade barriers with technical regulations, standards, and conformity assessment procedures as the main forms of expression is increasingly evident. Responding to foreign technical barriers is a major issue facing China’s petrochemical industry. .
The European Union has promulgated the "Electronic Waste Equipment Directive", "Prohibition of the Use of Certain Hazardous Substances in Electrical and Electronic Equipment" and the European Union's Regulations on Chemicals Registration, Evaluation, Authorization and Restriction (ie, REACH Regulations), making about 30,000 kinds of chemicals And downstream products must enter the EU market, must pass registration, and the high cost of testing in the registration process will be borne by the company.
It is predicted that the full implementation of REACH will have a huge impact on China’s related industries: The total cost of China’s exports to the EU will increase by 5%, and the cost of imports from the EU will increase by 6%. The total import and export of China-Europe chemicals will drop by 10%, China's chemical production will drop by 0.4%, and it may result in the loss of 200,000 chemical and related employees.
Trend 3: This year will maintain a growth rate of more than 20%
According to the prediction of China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association, as international oil prices will continue to operate at a high level and domestic economic development will accelerate the market demand, domestic chemical product prices will not show ups and downs in 2007, and the profits of the chemical industry will also increase by a certain amount. It is expected that this will continue. Maintain a growth rate of more than 20%.
In 2007, the upgrading of domestic consumption structure will drive the upgrading of industrial structure and urbanization. Domestic demand will lead to strong economic growth and energy demand will continue to grow. At the same time, the transportation industry continues to grow, the consumption and possession of automobiles are increasing rapidly, the use of oil in the agriculture, building materials and chemical industries is increasing, the pace of urbanization is accelerating, the development of alternative energy and renewable energy products is accelerating, and the use of gas by residents is expanding. All will drive demand for oil and gas.
In recent years, industries such as construction, textiles, electronics, and automobiles have also contributed strongly to the petrochemical industry. In 2006, China produced 25.29 million tons of synthetic resin and still imported 23.93 million tons. It is expected that the demand for synthetic resin will further increase in 2007; the demand for domestic paint will maintain a growth of more than 20% in 2007; the domestic synthetic fiber output will be less than 50 in 2006. %; In the electronic industry, supporting synthetic materials and information chemicals will increase by more than 18% in 2007.
China's Petroleum and Chemical Industry Development Trends
One of the Trends: High Prices Run Investment Return to Rationality