The LED industry's upward turning point has established an overall increase


In 2014, the LED (light-emitting diode) industry continued to make great progress. Whether it is Philips, Osram and other international first-line lighting giants, or LED industry chain companies in South Korea and Taiwan, they are optimistic about the LED lighting market and continue to increase investment. Authorities expect that the output value of China's LED lighting industry will increase by 58 to reach 180 billion yuan in 2014. Will the future of the LED electronics industry continue to rise? How do investors grasp the investment opportunities in the LED industry chain?
Huang Panpan, senior analyst of Dongfang Securities New Energy Electronics, said that 2014 will be the big era of LED lighting, and the overall industry turning point will be upward. The overall increase of LED concept stocks in the A-share market is considerable, but there are still some opportunities in the stock market.
At the same time, for China's LED production enterprises and fierce competition, Huang Panpan pointed out that with the gradual improvement of supply and demand in 2014, the increase in industry concentration will be an inevitable trend.
Listed companies in the LED industry have announced the 2013 annual report. According to statistics, in 2013, the entire LED industry produced and sold large quantities, but the performance was divided: upstream and downstream enterprises were caught in the dilemma of increasing revenues, while mid-stream packaging companies increased their profits while improving their profits. Huang Panpan expects that the entire industry chain will improve in 2014, and the most obvious benefits will be upstream, midstream and downstream. However, from the perspective of investment, considering the base, elasticity, market value and other issues, Huang Panpan believes that the companies in the middle and lower reaches are more prominent because of lower market value, higher flexibility and inflection points.
Huang Panpan summed up the development trend of the LED industry in the past few years: (1) From 2008 to 2010, LED applications and small and medium-sized netbooks, notebooks and other products have a full-blown backlight, and the economy is rising. The output value of the LED industry is growing rapidly. The demand for LED products is in short supply. Although it was affected by the economic environment at the time, the LED industry was full of confidence and formed a wave of investment expansion. All walks of life joined the LED industry expansion team; (2) 2010 ~ In 2011, the industry's growth rate reached its peak and the economy gradually declined. At that time, the backlight of small and medium-sized notebooks reached full penetration, and TV backlight applications gradually emerged, but the penetration ratio was still small, resulting in a downward rate of capacity utilization and a decline in the growth rate of the industry. (3) De-capacity in 2011-2013, full penetration of TV backlights Lighting applications are gradually blooming. At this stage, with the rapid release of production capacity, supply and demand are seriously unbalanced, prices are accelerating, and industrial capital expansion is stopped or postponed. More and more manufacturers choose to leave the market, phase out integration and accelerate, and capacity is gradually digested.
For this year's industry prospects, Huang Panpan said that 2014 will be the new beginning of LED lighting, the industry turning point upwards and profitability improvement.
The key points are as follows: 1. The lowest price difference between LED and energy-saving lamps is nearly doubled; the second and ten-dollar sweet spot products are rapidly increasing; third, demand enters a stage of high elastic growth, and demand is greatly increased in price sensitivity; The contribution ratio of lighting application output value will be equivalent to that of backlight, and it is expected to reach 40 or above. Fifth, the price decline in 2014 is relatively limited, with a single quarterly decline of less than 5. From the policy point of view, in 2014, the world entered the second wave of incandescent lamps banned peak period, accelerating the promotion of LED lighting related products. In general, with the rapid growth of LED lighting demand and the process of de-capacity, the industry is healthier, market concentration is gradually increasing, and prices are relatively stable.
In the secondary market, Huang Panpan believes that although the LED concept stocks in the A-share market are very active, many stocks have not seen a large increase in the previous period, but from the investment point of view, considering the emotional factors and relative comparative advantages, some stocks still have some stocks. upside potential.

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