2040 auto sales force 200 million to control property is a limited car prelude? (one)

17 million, 31 million, 40 million, 75 million...

This is not a digital solitaire game in the automotive world, but it represents China's annual car sales in 2010, 2015, 2020, and 2030, respectively.

7 million vehicles, 15 km per hour, and more than 4 hours of traffic per day...

This group of data is even heavier than the magnificent number of 75 million vehicles produced and sold.

When the rapidly developing Chinese auto industry encounters congested urban traffic, it will look more and more in the next 5 or 10 years. Will China's auto industry now need to restrict production or limit consumption?

In 2001, the annual sales volume approached 200 million cars. The China Automobile Association predicted that the auto market will exceed 17 million vehicles this year, which is currently considered to be a fact. Even if I wait for the small people, I dare to turn into an expert to make this judgment.

However, the China Automobile Association also predicts five years after the Chinese car sales, that is, in 2015 the domestic automobile production capacity will reach 23 million -31 million.

How is it, scary enough? In fact, China Automobile Association is still a conservative point. Xu Liuping, chairman of Changan Automobile (Group) Co., Ltd., predicted that the annual sales of automobiles in 2020 will reach 50 million, of which the overseas market will reach 10 million.

At the just-concluded Global Automotive Forum, the Fed economist Edward Polis Goth predicted that by 2020 China's auto production and sales will exceed 40 million vehicles. This prediction is more modest than Xu Liuping, but he then put a big one on it. Satellites - it will reach 75 million by 2030, and by 2040, China will continue to increase car ownership.

As for the number of cars produced and sold in China by 2040, the Nobel Prize winner did not give a clear forecast. But according to his reasoning, the calculation of China's auto sales every two decades will be calculated. By 2040, China will sell almost 150 million cars each year. According to the minimum annual growth rate of at least 10% predicted by the authoritative Chinese auto market, and based on the economist’s base of 75 million vehicles in 2030, China’s annual automobile sales volume will reach 195.53 million vehicles by 2040.

2. Is the space for only 65 million vehicles increased? The auto market in China has become a bottomless pit. No matter how many cars are produced, they cannot meet the growing demand of the people for car consumption.

In reality, however, whether it is 75 million vehicles 10 years later or 20 million years later, it seems to be an over-optimistic or even blind prediction.

You know, the global sales of new cars last year was only 60 million. Nissan Renault CEO Ghosn had predicted early this year that global car sales will increase by about 3% in 2010. International analyst Groupama said that due to the strong recovery of the US economy and the continued high sales of Chinese automobiles, it is expected that global car sales will grow by 4% in 2010. Even if we take the highest growth rate of 4%, we will have only 88.815 million cars sold globally by 2020. Then, ten years later, automakers in the United States, Japan, Germany, and South Korea will only need to produce 13.815 million vehicles and they can stop production, because only China’s output will be enough to meet global demand.

According to the data released by the Traffic Management Bureau of the Ministry of Public Security not long ago, the number of motor vehicles in China has reached 199 million, of which more than 85 million vehicles. A recent study by Tsinghua University shows that the limit of China’s car ownership is 150 million vehicles. After reaching this limit, the auto market will enter a stage of steady development. Therefore, there is an increase of about 65 million ownership in China. According to the current pace of development, this limit of possession will soon be reached, and then it will enter a stage of steady development.

3, traffic congestion will change the original intention of the car life from 13 o'clock on September 17th, Beijing Traffic Control Bureau command center on the big screen, the "flying red" sections of the growing, after congested sections of data are constantly being refreshed, traffic peaks appear From 16:00 to 17:00. Traffic Management Bureau dynamic road map shows that around 16:30, the city has reached 107 congested roads.

At the peak of the congested section of the late peak season in Beijing, it was more than 140, which had already broken the peak record of over 90 congested sections caused by heavy snow in early 2010.

Not only Beijing, but also all major and medium-sized cities in Guangzhou, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Wuhan, etc., had traffic jams on the same day, and it was difficult for traffic jams on weekdays. It was even more difficult for traffic jams during holidays. Not long ago, authoritative departments predicted that the number of motor vehicles in Beijing in 2015 will reach 7 million vehicles. According to the plan, even if the road infrastructure in Beijing reaches the most perfect state, it can only accommodate 6.7 million motor vehicles. According to the current trend, the average speed of Beijing's roads will be 15 kilometers per hour, which is equivalent to the average person's jogging speed.

The original intention of mankind inventing the car was to enjoy a faster and more convenient life. But when the speed of 15 kilometers per hour in the future is only equivalent to the average person's jogging speed, can we still feel the convenience brought by car life? Therefore, whether it is restricting automobile production or limiting automobile consumption is a difficult problem that confronts the government and the public.

4. Limiting auto production VS restraining auto consumption The State Council counselor and leader of the Sustainable Development Strategic Research Group of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Niu Wenyuan, has revealed the latest research findings: Due to traffic congestion and management problems, 15 cities in China lose nearly 10 per day. Billion wealth. 365 days a year is 365 billion yuan, and the income from buying a car is offset by traffic jams.

At the same time, with the rapid entry of automobiles into the home, problems such as environmental pollution and traffic congestion are becoming one of the roadblocks to the growth of China's auto market. Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and the second and third tier cities are currently facing serious traffic jams. The reporter returned to his hometown in a small county, and he was still struggling in the main road. Traffic jams have become a common phenomenon in the country.

As the real estate industry has been "adversely punished" by the government after this year's successive adjustments and controls, the automobile industry has been playing a significant role in the overall economy, and has not yet reached the stage where it needs to be restrained. At present, the development is just flourishing. The support of policies for production and consumption in the auto market has all played a role in fueling the global financial crisis that engulfed 2008. It has also played a significant role in the rapid growth of the Chinese economy.

But when the social role of automobiles is becoming increasingly negative, can policies support it? Will it restrict the development of cars? This is not alarmist. At the very least, Beijing, which has the most traffic jams, is already in operation. A few days ago, five State Council counselors issued five blocking measures for the future of traffic in Beijing. The first is to control automobile consumption in the next five years and consider adopting economic means such as parking space occupancy fees for control.

For example, the annual increase in automobile control indicators, increase purchase tax, increase the cost of first-time car purchases, strengthen the management of car licenses, strictly implement the method of license management on parking spaces, increase parking fees, and implement differentiated parking management and charging policies. Different areas and different time periods are used to implement different parking rates to further expand the geographical scope of the implementation of differential parking prices; through the collection of congestion fees, sewage charges, environmental taxes and other means to increase motor vehicle use costs and curb demand for motor vehicles.

If Beijing’s above-mentioned measures are implemented, Beijing’s role as the country’s first auto market may disappear. Now, in the face of the upcoming Asian Games, Guangzhou, Dongguan, Foshan and other cities will also begin to implement single and double number restrictions to set a threshold for automobile consumption.

Since the State Council promulgated the “Auto Industry Industrial Policy” in 1994 and “encourage individuals to purchase cars” to implement the “automotive industry development policy” in 2004 and “cultivate the automobile market with private consumption as the main body”, there are more and more car owners. However, in the face of the growth of cars with "high roads and low heights", the development of the automobile industry has reached a crossroads. Then, when incentive policies are withdrawn and restrictions are implemented in succession, where should the Chinese auto market go?