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2011 has quietly passed away, and 2012 is coming. In 2011, we are struggling; in 2012, we are full of hope. At the request of the readers, we combine the situation of the country, industry and enterprises to predict the development trend of the industry in 2012 from different angles, aiming to attract more attention and trigger industry thinking.
In 2012, the LED enterprise channel war will start, and the LED product terminal market is surging.
Housing prices return to rationality to promote market rejuvenation After two years of property market regulation, the momentum of housing prices has been alleviated. According to the latest report, in 2011, housing prices in more than 70 cities including Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou all showed different degrees of decline. On December 9, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee held a meeting. The meeting made it clear that next year will implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. We must adhere to the real estate control policy and unswervingly promote the reasonable return of housing prices and promote the healthy development of the real estate market. What is more worth mentioning is that in 2012, a number of affordable housing units will start construction in the country, which will accelerate the rational return of housing prices. After the decline in house prices, consumers will be motivated to buy houses, and the downstream home building materials market will also usher in spring.
LED companies will launch channel warfare In recent years, the development speed of LED lighting is unexpected. Traditional overseas LED leading companies such as Career and Puri have rushed to the Chinese market, while traditional international lighting giants such as Philips, Osram and GE are also Strong attack, Sunshine Lighting, Shanghai Yaming, NVC lighting and other domestic excellent brands began to show their strengths in the field of lighting applications. Despite the popularity of LED market, LED lighting products have not won the favor of consumers in the terminal market due to the relatively lagging channel construction. Those who have access to the channel have the world. It is understood that a group of powerful LED companies such as Shifu, Dehao Runda and Myers are increasing channel construction efforts. I believe that under their guidance, 2012 will become the LED lighting channel construction year.
The pace of corporate capital operation has accelerated Guoxing Optoelectronics, NVC Lighting, Zhen Mingli, Lehman Optoelectronics, and Qinshang Optoelectronics. In recent years, a large number of lighting companies have entered the capital market. Up to now, there have been more than 50 domestic listed lighting companies, which is at least five times higher than five years ago. According to relevant sources, there are currently more than 100 LED-related lighting companies in the queue. In addition to listing, corporate mergers and acquisitions are also rushing. It is conservatively estimated that no less than three companies will be listed on the market in 2012, and there will be no fewer than three mergers and acquisitions.
Phosphor prices fluctuated in 2011, and the phosphor took a roller coaster ride. Affected by the state's efforts to manage rare earth resources, the price of trichromatic phosphors used in fluorescent lamps has risen sharply, from 250 yuan to 300 yuan/kg at the beginning of the year to 2,500 yuan to 2,800 yuan per kilogram in mid-June. Nearly 9 times. The price of phosphors has skyrocketed, making many energy-saving lamps companies unable to eat. Although the price of phosphors has gradually returned to normal levels in the second half of the year, once the news about the management of rare earth resources is released, the price of phosphors will likely ride on the roller coaster again. How to do a good job in the phosphor inventory plan will be a question that must be carefully considered by energy-saving lamp tube companies and finished products companies.
The market segment wins in the terminal to find a beautiful scenery, hot and busy to open a dealer conference, after eating, drinking, and fun, let dealers purchase products to purchase goods, this has always been the lighting industry enterprises to enjoy the old routine. Nowadays, businesses and businesses are becoming more and more realistic, and it is better to teach them fish than to fish. As a result, more and more lighting and lighting companies have moved their marketing activities to market terminals according to the requirements of agents, and the theme of dealer conferences is more about how to combine local markets and explore practical action plans. It is understood that Shifu Optoelectronics and Dehao Runda's marketing activities plan in the terminal market has been released. In 2012, the marketing activities of the terminal in the lighting and lighting industry will be well connected.
Compared with traditional lighting products, in the future, the LED industry development pattern will remain stable, still relying on channels as the king, which is the inevitable trend of the development of the entire lighting industry. When an industry develops to a certain stage, shuffling is an upgrade. For a company as well, companies that develop to a certain size will encounter various bottlenecks when they go up. Analysts believe that at present, domestic LED companies have achieved rapid development through the Beijing Olympic Games, Shanghai World Expo, Guangzhou Asian Games, Shenzhen Universiade and Ten Cities. And then LED lighting as a new energy-saving light source, quickly recognized by consumers, into the homes of ordinary people, the bottleneck to be broken is product categories, specifications, prices, brands, marketing models, channel construction.
After the traditional enterprise went to the LED climate conference in Copenhagen in 2009, energy conservation and low carbon became the main theme of the global sing. Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Commerce, the General Administration of Customs and other five departments jointly announced that it will gradually ban the import and sale of ordinary lighting incandescent lamps in stages according to the power level from October 1, 2012. Five years later, incandescent lamps will be basically eliminated in China. This means that in the near future, the electric light source invented by American inventor Edison in 1879 will gradually fade out of our sight and replace it with high-efficiency lighting products. Because the mercury pollution of energy-saving lamps has been greatly spurred by the media, and LEDs are supported by national and local policies, traditional lighting companies should maintain their advantages in this context, and it will be the only choice to switch to the LED field.
EMC mode-led replacement engineering contract energy management (EMC) is a new type of market-oriented energy-saving mechanism. The essence is the energy-saving business method of paying the full cost of energy-saving projects with reduced energy costs. This energy-saving investment method allows customers to upgrade their plants and equipment with future energy-saving benefits to reduce current operating costs; or energy-saving service companies provide energy-saving services to customers by committing to energy-saving benefits of energy-saving projects or contracting overall energy costs. This mode of operation requires strong financial strength as a backing. At present, 100%, Miles and other lighting companies have adopted this model. I believe that after more and more LED companies have successfully operated capital, this model will be widely adopted by lighting companies in schools, factories and large supermarkets.
Mid-to-high-end lantern brand attacked invisible channel NVC lighting in the invisible channel, such as fish, water, product, Xideng and other commercial lighting brands also followed. In recent years, invisible channels have become the main battlefield for commercial lighting brands. In this context, the crystal lighting brands such as Jinda Lighting, Wenlian Lighting, and Zhongyi Lighting also began to test the invisible channels and achieved certain results. Under their leadership, in addition to the crystal lamp enterprises, it is expected that there will be a number of high-end lantern companies to steal the invisible channels.
The manufacturer's relationship with the traditional melody is a loose and simple division of labor. The manufacturer is only responsible for producing the product, and the dealer is only responsible for selling the product. The two parties only maintain the relationship through simple agreement and temporary interest drive. Due to the lack of common values ​​and market ideas, both parties focus on their respective interests. Therefore, in many cases, the relationship between manufacturers is easy to show negative non-cooperation or even opposite. As far as the current channel phenomenon is concerned, there are only three types of relationships among manufacturers: one is a husband-and-wife relationship; the other is a lover-style relationship; the other is a squat-type relationship. As the market competition in the lighting and lighting industry is becoming increasingly fierce, pressure from outside forces the manufacturers to join forces, and the phenomenon of manufacturers joining hands to participate in each other will gradually become clear.
After the re-recognition of the LED industry in 2011, LED display application companies have accelerated the pace of listing, and the combination of capital and market, such as mergers and acquisitions, will promote major adjustments in the LED display application industry. In the next few years, the LED industry may develop in the following directions.
International LED lighting giants accelerate the attack on international LED lighting giants Philips, Toshiba has led the industry to successfully develop 800 lumens LED bulbs, and is actively developing LED bulbs above 1000 lumens. 800 lumens LED bulbs, packages of up to 1000 lumens per dollar, high-voltage LEDs and warm white LEDs with red light are the general trend, and will become the technical focus of LED chip makers.
At this stage, many LED chip makers are trying to increase the red color LED in AIGalnP to achieve high color rendering. Compared with the warm white light scheme of blue LED mixed phosphor powder, the color rendering performance is up to 82. The warm white light of mixed red LED can be as high as color rendering. 90, so it will become the mainstream of the market.
In addition, high-voltage LEDs are primarily aimed at indoor lighting, which helps simplify the design of LEDs and power converters. Compared with the DC solution, the high-voltage solution can reduce the luminous efficiency, and the higher efficiency of the driver, coupled with the failure of the AC solution, as well as the low manufacturing cost and ease of production, will be the easiest to achieve cost-effective The LED bulb solution has become a market for LED chip makers to compete for.
The cooperation between upstream and downstream enterprises to develop cooperation among enterprises, especially the cooperation between upstream and downstream enterprises will become another trend of the LED industry. Jingyuan Optoelectronics Co., Ltd. is a listed company specializing in the production of ultra-high brightness LED epitaxial wafers and crystal grains in Taiwan. It is a major manufacturer of LED epitaxial chips in the world and has complete LED chips. Product intellectual property.
Recently, Sunshine Lighting announced plans to issue no more than 48 million shares at a price of not less than 19.24 yuan / share, raising 918 million yuan, of which LED energy-saving lighting products plan to occupy 419 million yuan, the company's controlling shareholder Century Sunshine has been clear Said not to participate in this subscription.
Sunshine Lighting believes that this cooperation has fully utilized the respective advantages of Sunlight Lighting and Jingyuan Optoelectronics, and has achieved strong cooperation and complementary advantages between the upstream and downstream of the LED lighting industry chain, and jointly accelerated the development of LED lighting market and enhanced LED lighting. Market share has created favorable conditions.
White LED device project received financial support From the perspective of LED capacity technology and usability, China has proposed preferential measures such as reducing tax rate, accelerating equipment depreciation and free land use. The plan is equivalent to encouraging existing domestic LED manufacturers to expand capacity, which will also lead to many new competitors. LED manufacturers from Taiwan and South Korea are also actively entering the Chinese mainland market, which has become a factor driving the increase in production capacity.
The lighting market is the first to activate outdoor large-angle lighting, such as street lights, billboard lights, and so on. Indoor lighting will first be activated for long-lasting lighting applications, including tunnels, supermarkets, factories, shopping malls, and office buildings. Most commercial lighting markets are expected to be activated by the end of 2011. Home lighting is mainly for high-end customers, concentrated in high-end residential buildings such as apartments and villas.
Luo Wenzheng, chief engineer of Xinli Light Source, believes that due to the similarity of LED products and technologies, in the next 3-5 years, LED lighting products will gradually be standardized and standardized, becoming a regular product, and this time will gradually usher in the LED industry. The big shuffle. At that time, the LED industry will be the same as other industries. Enterprises with brands, technologies and capital strength will be based in the LED industry, and some low-end and brand-name companies can only survive in the slit. Of course, some companies have taken a narrow market route and gained a large share of the small market to survive and develop.