Report shows that the construction of high-speed railways in the Mainland requires a total investment of 849.1 billion yuan

The “7.23” Wenzhou train collision incident caused the Ministry of Railways to fall into a crisis of confidence. The Ministry of Railways’ financial problems have caused widespread concern in the capital market. Recently, a number of securities companies issued research on the financial situation of the Ministry of Railways. According to the latest research report issued by GF Securities yesterday, the current high-speed rail lines under construction need to invest a total of 849.1 billion yuan, and the total investment for high-speed rail lines that have already been put into operation Nearly 600 billion yuan.

The accident will cause the financing to be discounted. Since the country launched a 4 trillion investment plan in 2008, the construction of high-speed railways has been fully carried out. According to data released by GF Securities on the latest research report yesterday, at present, 13 high-speed rail production lines include the Beijing-Shanghai line, the Wuhan-Guangzhou line, and Ningbo-Taiwan temperature. The lines under construction include the Nanjing-Hangzhou line, the Beijing-Shijiazhuang line, and Harbin-Dalian line. Of the 26 in the list, 23 to be built include the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Line, the Jingshen Line, and the Xu-Zheng Line. The line put into operation has already invested 589.8 billion yuan in funds, and the total number of lines under construction needs to invest 849.1 billion yuan.

Now that there are still a large number of high-speed railway projects under construction that need to continue to advance, there is still a large amount of capital investment. The Ministry of Railways had previously determined that the scale of investment in 2011 was 745.5 billion yuan, of which 600 billion yuan was for infrastructure investment. Although the Ministry of Railways has repeatedly stressed that the railway funds are guaranteed and future investment will continue to decrease, industry insiders are skeptical. "After the train accident, the scale of investment planned by the Ministry of Railways is difficult to achieve and it should be discounted," said an analyst who declined to be named on the previous day.

Depending on loan and bond financing In recent years, Zhao Jian, the Beijing Jiaotong University’s Institute of Economics and Business Administration, has always studied the Chinese Railways and told the reporter yesterday. “This train accident has undoubtedly increased the difficulty of financing by the Ministry of Railways. In the future, the capital chain is on the verge of breaking. It is possible.” He explained that the Ministry of Railways’ financing channels include construction funds, depreciation funds, local government funding, and institutional investment including social security funds. Another important component is bank loans and bond financing.

CITIC Securities analyst Zhang Hongbo previously pointed out in the report that after the construction of high-speed railways, infrastructure investment quickly rose to the scale of 700 billion yuan in 2010, of which new sources of investment funds were mainly loan and bond financing. High-speed rail construction has been highly dependent on loans and bond financing.

Sustainability of profitability In the tight capital chain situation, the profitability of the Ministry of Railways is also worrying. Zhang Hongbo pointed out in his report that the current high-speed rail passenger flow is still in the nurturing stage, and most of the high-speed rails are unlikely to generate considerable profits in the short term. The Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed rail has exceeded 20 million people since it was opened in 2009, but it still has a loss of 3 billion yuan. At the same time, if the increase in freight rates to improve profitability also requires a long-term process.

Zhao Jian said that in the future the Ministry of Railways may further increase the scale of liabilities, the debt ratio may increase further, or cause the capital chain to break.

However, some analysts who declined to be named said: “Although the Ministry of Railways has a very large financial risk, due to the relationship between the ministries and commissions, I think it is unlikely that there will be a break in the capital chain.”

Reporter Li Lei Liu Xia â–  Affected the high-speed rail behind the central enterprises "forces" affected by the analysis said that the relevant high-speed rail business growth rate of the central enterprises will be significantly slowed down Before the high-speed rail's triumph progress, the central enterprises have been the dominant force, these central enterprises also benefit from The high-speed rail concept is very popular in the market. However, since the beginning of this year, due to the fall of senior officials of the Ministry of Railways and frequent accidents, the central enterprises behind these high-speed rails have also suffered. According to the analysis, the relevant business of the central SOEs will obviously slow down.

The central enterprises are more affected. From the current point of view, there are a number of backbones such as China CNR, China South Locomotive, China Communications Construction, China Railway, China Railway Construction, Panzhihua Iron and Steel, and Anshan Iron and Steel, which are mainly distributed in the high-speed rail locomotives, project construction, and steel equipment. Central enterprises.

"China's CNR and CSR may jointly monopolize the domestic railway locomotive manufacturing market by 95%. Railway construction is also mainly owned by the enterprises of the central SOEs. Therefore, it is certain that the central SOEs will be more affected." An analyst who declined to be named yesterday told this Reporter said. At present, various central SOEs have not disclosed the proportion of high-speed railways as a percentage of their overall business, but MUs are the main force for new orders. For example, the biggest bright spot for China CNR's performance last year was its EMU business, which saw its revenue increase by 228.58%, and CNR in-hand orders reached RMB 121 billion, including EMU orders of RMB 60 billion.

A fund company manager who declined to be named said yesterday that the current high-speed rail is still a lot of CSR, and the growth is very fast. However, after the accident, the reduction of orders in the second half and next year will surely fall badly. In addition, it will also have a great impact on CSR’s overseas exports. He sold all CSR shares in his hands yesterday morning.

The high-speed rail business has slowed down before the accident. An insider of the SASAC disclosed to the reporter yesterday that, in fact, the growth of high-speed rail business of several central enterprises before the accident was significantly slowed down. Many of the central enterprises that undertook the project, such as China Railway, took over. The project is much less. This person analyzed that the deceleration of high-speed rail projects was mainly due to the Ministry of Railways' own financial problems.

The reporter Jing Jingjing High Speed ​​Rail “four vertical and four horizontal” is under construction. The starting point/end point of the project line is under construction (100 million yuan). The construction status is a vertical Beijing-Shanghai; Hefei-Hefei; Nanjing-Hangzhou Hefei-Hefei-Hebei 102 is under construction. Nanjing-Hangzhou line Nanjing-Hangzhou 314 under construction two vertical Beijing-Shijiazhuang-Wuhan-Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Jingshi line Beijing-Shijiazhuang 439 under construction Shiwu line Shijiazhuang-Wuhan 1168 under construction Guangzhou-Shenzhen line Guangzhou-Shenzhen 167 under construction Shenzhen and Shenzhen Line Shenzhen-Hong Kong 395 to be built three vertical Beijing-Shenyang; Harbin-Changchun-Shenyang-Dalian Jingshen Line Beijing-Shenyang 962 Harbin-Dalian line to be built Harbin-Dalian 923 in the construction of four vertical Shanghai-Hangzhou-Ningbo-Taizhou-Wenzhou- Fuzhou-Xiamen-Shenzhen Shanghai-Hangzhou Line Shanghai-Hangzhou 293 Under Construction Hangzhou-Ningbo Line Hangzhou-Ningbo 214 Xiamen Under Construction Xiamen-Shenzhen 417 under Construction Yiheng Xuzhou-Zhengzhou-Xi'an-Baoji-Lanzhou Xuzhou Line Xuzhou-Zhengzhou 486 Xibao line to be built Xi'an-Baoji 180 to be built Baolan line Baoji-Lanzhou 565 to be built Second Heng Hangzhou-Nanchang-Changsha-Guiyang-Kunming long line Hangzhou-Changsha 1161 To be built Changsha-Kun line Changsha-Kunming 1616 to be built Qingdao - Jinan - Shijiazhuang - Taiyuan Shiji line Jinan - Shijiazhuang 449 to be built on the four horizontal - Nanjing - Hefei - Wuhan - Yichang - Lichuan - Chongqing - Suining - Chengdu Hanyi Line Wuhan - Yichang 240 Under construction Yiwan line Yichang - Lichuan 225 Under construction Jianli line Icheon - Chongqing 269 Jianye line Chongqing - Suining 48 Construction Note: The above table does not include the Bohai Rim, the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, the city circle of the Central Plains, and other circuits. ■ Two modes of international experience: “Combination of Construction and Transportation” and “Separation of Construction and Transportation”

According to the reporter's research and public information, it is found that the construction and operation management of high-speed railways in the world can be divided into two modes: "combination of construction and transportation" and "separation of construction and transportation."

The so-called “combination of construction and transportation” means that the project legal person is responsible for both the financing and construction of high-speed railways and the procurement of high-speed trains, as well as the maintenance, operation and repayment of the lines. This model is conducive to the adoption of uniform production technology standards and updated standards to ensure the integrity of high-speed rail transport organization, equipment configuration, vehicle-ticket transfer, and line maintenance, as well as the unity of line maintenance technical standards to ensure that the technical requirements for operations are met. , is conducive to the improvement of transport efficiency. This model is used by Korea High Speed ​​Rail.

"Separation of construction and transportation" means that a project legal person is responsible for the financing and construction of high-speed railways. After the project is completed, it is transferred or leased to a high-speed railway operating company. The high-speed railway operating company is responsible for the operation or is also responsible for the maintenance of the high-speed railway. Japan, Germany, France, etc. adopt this model.